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150 IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage table 3.6 Confidence levels for technology and system cost estimates. Confidence Level Description Very High Mature technology with multiple commercial replications for this application and scale of operation; considerable operating experience and data under a variety of conditions. High Commercially deployed in applications similar to the system under study, but at a smaller scale and/or with limited operating experience; no major problems or issues anticipated in this application; commercial guarantees available. Moderate No commercial application for the system and/or scale of interest, but technology is commercially deployed in other applications; issues of scale-up, operability and reliability remain to be demonstrated for this application. Low Experience and data based on pilot plant or proof-of-concept scale; no commercial applications or full-scale demonstrations; significant technical issues or cost-related questions still to be resolved for this application. Very Low A new concept or process not yet tested, or with operational data limited to the laboratory or bench-scale level; issues of large-scale operability, effectiveness, reliability and manufacturability remain to be demonstrated. 3.7.4 Overview of technologies and systems evaluated the choice of capture technology, but also - and often more importantly - on the characteristics and design of the overall power plant. For purposes of cost reporting, we distinguish between coal-fired and gas-fired plant designs and between new and existing facilities. 3.7.5.1 New coal-fired power plants Economic studies of CO2 capture have focused mainly on electric power generation, a major source of CO2 emissions. To a lesser extent, CO2 capture from industrial processes also has been subject to economic evaluations, especially processes producing hydrogen, often in combination with other products. The sections below review and summarize recent estimates of CO2 capture costs for major systems of interest. Sections 3.7.5 to 3.7.8 focus first on the cost of current CO2 capture technologies, while Sections 3.7.10 to 3.7.12 go on to discuss improved or ‘advanced’ technologies promising lower costs in the future. In all cases the system boundary is defined as a single facility at which CO2 is captured and compressed for delivery to a transport and storage system. To reflect different levels of confidence (or uncertainty) in cost estimates for technologies at different stages of development, the qualitative descriptors shown in Table 3.6 are applied in summarizing published cost estimates.9 The studies reviewed typically report costs in US dollars for reference years ranging from 2000 to early 2004. Because inflation effects generally have been small during this period no adjustments have been made in summarizing ranges of reported costs. Table 3.7 summarizes the key assumptions and results of recent studies of post-combustion CO2 capture at new coal-fired power plants. Assumed plant sizes with CO2 capture range from approximately 300-700 MW net power output. In all cases, CO2 capture is accomplished using an amine-based absorption system, typically MEA. Capture efficiencies range from 85-95% with the most common value being 90%. The studies employ different assumptions about other key parameters such as the base power plant efficiency, coal properties, coal cost, plant capacity factor, CO2 product pressure and financial parameters such as the fixed charge factor. All of these factors have a direct influence on total plant cost and the cost of CO2 capture. 3.7.5 Post-combustion CO2 capture cost for electric power plants (current technology) Most of the world’s electricity is currently generated from the combustion of fossil fuels, especially coal and (to an increasing extent) natural gas. Hence, the ability to capture and store the CO2 emitted by such plants has been a major focus of investigation. This section of the report focuses on the cost of currently available technology for CO2 capture. Because of the relatively low CO2 concentration in power plant flue gases, chemical absorption systems have been the dominant technology of interest for post-combustion capture (see Section 3.3.2). However, the cost of CO2 capture depends not only on 9 These descriptions are used in subsequent tables to characterize systems with CO2 capture. In most cases the cost estimates for reference plants (without capture) would rank as high (e.g., IGCC power plants) or very high (e.g., PC and NGCC power plants). Table 3.7 summarizes several measures of CO2 capture cost, both in absolute and relative terms. Across the full set of studies, CO2 capture adds 44-87% to the capital cost of the reference plant (US$ kW-1) and 42-81% to the cost of electricity (US$ MWh-1), while achieving CO2 reductions of approximately 80-90% per net kWh produced. The cost of CO2 avoided for these cases varies from 29-51 US$/tCO2. The absolute values of capital cost, COE and incremental cost of electricity in Table 3.7 reflect the different assumptions employed in each study. The result is an incremental COE of 18-38 US$ MWh-1 (or US$ 0.018-0.038 kWh-1) for CO2 capture. The total COE for plants with capture ranges from 62-87 US$ MWh-1. In all cases, a significant portion of the total CO2 capture cost is due to the energy requirement for CO2 capture and compression. For the studies in Table 3.7, the plants with CO2 capture require 24-42% more fuel input per MWh of plant output relative to a similar reference plant without capture. Roughly half the energy is required for solvent regeneration and a third for CO2 compression. While many factors contribute to the cost differences observed in Table 3.7, systematic studies of the influence of different factors indicate that the most important sources of variability in reported cost results are assumptions about thePDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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