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Chapter 3: Capture of CO2 plants that use other biomass byproducts and/or purpose-grown biomass. At present most biomass plants are relatively small. The cost of capturing 0.19 MtCO2 yr-1 in a 24 MW biomass- powered IGCC plant, compared to a biomass IGCC plant without capture, is estimated to be about 70 US$/tCO2 (Audus and Freund, 2005). Larger plants using purpose-grown biomass may be built in the future and biomass can be co-fired with fossil fuels to give economies of scale, as discussed in Chapter 2. Biomass fuels produce similar or slightly greater quantities of CO2 per unit of fuel energy as bituminous coals; thus, the CO2 concentration of flue gases from these fuels will be broadly similar. This implies that the cost of capturing CO2 at large power plants using biomass may be broadly similar to the cost of capturing CO2 in large fossil fuel power plants in cases where plant size, efficiency, load factor and other key parameters are similar. The costs of avoiding CO2 emissions in power plants that use biomass are discussed in more detail in Chapter 8. 3.7.9 Outlook for future CO2 capture costs The following sections focus on ‘advanced’ technologies that are not yet commercial available, but which promise to lower CO2 capture costs based on preliminary data and design studies. Earlier sections of Chapter 3 discussed some of the efforts underway worldwide to develop lower-cost options for CO2 capture. Some of these developments are based on new process concepts, while others represent improvements to current commercial processes. Indeed, the history of technology innovation indicates that incremental technological change, sustained over many years (often decades), is often the most successful path to substantial long-term improvements in performance and reductions in cost of a technology (Alic et al., 2003). Such trends are commonly represented and quantified in the form of a ‘learning curve’ or ‘experience curve’ showing cost reductions as a function of the cumulative adoption of a particular technology (McDonald and Schrattenholzer, 2001). One recent study relevant to CO2 capture systems found that over the past 25 years, capital costs for sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) capture systems at US coal-fired power plants have decreased by an average of 12% for each doubling of installed worldwide capacity (a surrogate for cumulative experience, including investments in R&D) (Rubin et al., 2004a). These capture technologies bear a number of similarities to current systems for CO2 capture. Another recent study (IEA, 2004) suggests a 20% cost reduction for a doubling of the unit capacity of engineered processes due to technological learning. For CCS systems the importance of costs related to energy requirements is emphasized, since reductions in such costs are required to significantly reduce the overall cost of CO2 capture. At the same time, a large body of literature on technology innovation also teaches us that learning rates are highly 163 plants. CO2 could be captured at steam-generating plants or power uncertain,11 and that cost estimates for technologies at the early stages of development are often unreliable and overly optimistic (Merrow et al., 1981). Qualitative descriptions of cost trends for advanced technologies and energy systems typically show costs increasing from the research stage through full-scale demonstration; only after one or more full-scale commercial plants are deployed do costs begin to decline for subsequent units (EPRI, 1993; NRC, 2003). Case studies of the SO2 and NOx capture systems noted above showed similar behaviour, with large (factor of two or more) increases in the cost of early full-scale FGD and SCR installations before costs subsequently declined (Rubin et al., 2004b). Thus, cost estimates for CO2 capture systems should be viewed in the context of their current stage of development. Here we try to provide a perspective on potential future costs that combines qualitative judgments with the quantitative cost estimates offered by technology developers and analysts. The sections below revisit the areas of power generation and other industrial processes to highlight some of the major prospects for CO2 capture cost reductions. 3.7.10 CO2 capture costs for electric power plants (advanced technology) This section first examines oxy-fuel combustion, which avoids the need for CO2 capture by producing a concentrated CO2 stream for delivery to a transport and storage system. Following this we examine potential advances in post-combustion and pre-combustion capture. 3.7.10.1 Oxy-fuel combustion systems It is first important to distinguish between two types of oxy-fuel systems: an oxy-fuel boiler (either a retrofit or new design) and oxy-fuel combustion-based gas turbine cycles. The former are close to demonstration at a commercial scale, while the latter (such as chemical looping combustion systems and novel power cycles using CO2/water as working fluid) are still at the design stage. Table 3.13 summarizes the key assumptions and cost results of several recent studies of CO2 capture costs for oxy- fuel combustion systems applied to new or existing coal-fired units. As discussed earlier in Section 3.4, oxygen combustion produces a flue gas stream consisting primarily of CO2 and water vapour, along with smaller amounts of SO2, nitrogen and other trace impurities. These designs eliminate the capital and operating costs of a post-combustion CO2 capture system, but new costs are incurred for the oxygen plant and other system design modifications. Because oxy-fuel combustion is still under development and has not yet been utilized or demonstrated for large-scale power generation, the design basis and cost estimates for such systems remain highly variable and uncertain. This is reflected in the wide range of oxy-fuel cost estimates in Table 3.13. Note, however, that cost estimates for advanced design 11 In their study of 42 energy-related technologies, McDonald and Schrattenholzer (2001) found learning rates varying from -14% to 34%, with a median value of 16%. These rates represent the average reduction in cost for each doubling of installed capacity. A negative learning rate indicates that costs increased rather than decreased over the period studied.PDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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