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166 IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage concepts based on oxy-fuel combustion gas turbine cycles are more uncertain at this time than cost estimates for new or retrofitted boilers employing oxy-fuel combustion. a recent study by Rao et al. (2003), who used expert elicitations and a plant simulation model to quantify the improvements likely achievable by 2015 for four key process parameters: sorbent concentration, regeneration energy requirements, sorbent loss and sorbent cost. The ‘most likely’ improvement was an 18% reduction in COE, while the ‘optimistic’ estimates yielded a 36% cost reduction from improvements in just these four parameters. The cost of CO2 avoided was reduced by similar amounts. Advances in more efficient heat integration (for sorbent regeneration) and higher power plant efficiency could lead to even greater reductions in CO2 capture cost. For new plant applications, the data in Table 3.13 indicate that oxy-fuel combustion adds about 30-90% to the capital cost and 30-150% to the COE of a conventional plant, while reducing CO2 emissions per kWh by 75-100%. Retrofit applications exhibit higher relative costs in cases where the existing plant is wholly or partially amortized. The lowest-cost oxy-fuel system in Table 3.13 is one that employs chemical looping to achieve nearly a 100% reduction in CO2 emissions. While this concept thus appears promising (see Section 3.4.6), it has yet to be tested and verified at a meaningful scale. Thus cost estimates based on conceptual designs remain highly uncertain at this time. Advances in gas turbine technology produce similar benefits for NGCC systems. Table 3.13 shows several cases based on the H-turbine design. Relative to the cases in Table 3.9, these systems offer higher efficiency and greater CO2 reductions per kWh. The higher COEs for the advanced NGCC systems reflects the higher natural gas prices assumed in more recent studies. To judge the potential cost savings of oxy-fuels relative to current CO2 capture systems, it is useful to compare the costs of alternative technologies evaluated within a particular study based on a particular set of premises. In this regard, the COE for the oxy-fuel retrofit system reported by Alstom et al. (2001) in Table 3.13 is 20% lower than the cost of an amine system retrofit (Table 3.13) for the same 255 MW plant, while the cost of CO2 avoided is 26% lower. In contrast, a recent study by the Canadian Clean Power Coalition (Stobbs and Clark, 2005) reports that the COE for an oxy-fuel system at a large lignite- fired plant (Table 3.13) is 36% higher than for an amine CO2 capture system, while the cost of CO2 avoided is more than twice as great. The major source of that cost difference was a specification in the CCPC study that the oxy-fuelled unit also be capable of full air firing. This resulted in a much higher capital cost than for a new unit designed solely for oxy-fuel operation. A more recent study sponsored by IEA GHG (Dillon et al., 2005) found that a large new supercritical coal-fired boiler with oxy-fuel combustion had a COE slightly (2-3%) lower than a state-of-the-art coal plant with post-combustion analyzed in a separate study employing similar assumptions (IEA GHG, 2004). Further cost reductions could be achieved with the successful development of new lower-cost oxygen production technology (see Section 3.4.5). At the current time, the optimum designs of oxy-fuel combustion systems are not yet well established and costs of proposed commercial designs remain uncertain. This is especially true for advanced design concepts that employ components which are not yet available or still in the development stage, such as CO2 gas turbines or high temperature ceramic membranes for oxygen production. Improvements to current amine-based systems for post- combustion CO2 capture are being pursued by a number of process developers (Mimura et al., 2003; Muramatsu and Iijima, 2003; Reddy et al., 2003) and may offer the nearest- term potential for cost reductions over the systems currently in use. The newest systems summarized earlier in Table 3.7 reportedly reduce the cost of CO2 avoided by approximately 20-30% (IEA GHG, 2004). Table 3.13 indicates that additional advances in plant heat integration could further reduce the COE of capture plants by about 5%. These results are consistent with Table 3.13 indicates that other advanced technologies for post-combustion applications, such as membrane separation systems, may also lower the future cost of CO2 capture (see Section 3.3.3). Reliable cost estimates for such technologies should await their further development and demonstration. 3.7.10.2 Advanced systems with post-combustion capture Table 3.14 shows results of several recent studies that have projected the performance and cost of new or improved ways of producing hydrogen and electricity from fossil fuels. 3.7.10.3 Advanced systems with pre-combustion capture The cost of gasification-based systems with CO2 capture also can be expected to fall as a result of continued improvements in gas turbine technology, gasifier designs, oxygen production systems, carbon capture technology, energy management and optimization of the overall facility. One recent study (IEA GHG, 2003) estimates a 20% reduction in the cost of electricity generation from a coal-based IGCC plant with CO2 capture by 2020. This takes into account improvements in gasification, oxygen production, physical solvent scrubbing and combined cycle processes, but does not take into account any possible radical innovations in CO2 separation technology. The additional IGCC cases shown in Table 3.13, including recent results of the CO2 Capture Project (CCP, 2005), foresee similar reductions in the COE of advanced IGCC systems compared to the systems in Table 3.10. 3.7.11 CO2 capture costs for hydrogen production and multi-product plants (advanced technology) Compared to the current commercial plants in Table 3.11, the advanced single-product systems with CO2 capture have hydrogen cost reductions of 16% (for natural gas feedstock) to 26% (for coal feedstock). Additional cases in Table 3.14 show multi-product systems producing hydrogen and electricity. These cases indicate the potential for substantial reductions in the future cost of hydrogen production with CO2 capture. As before, the results are sensitive to the assumed selling price of co-product electricity. More importantly, these cases assumePDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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