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170 IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage Figure 3.20 Cost of electricity (excluding transport and storage costs) compared to CO2 emission rate for different reference and capture plants based on current technology. The shaded areas show the Table 3.15 ranges of CO2 emission rates and levelized cost of electricity (COE) for new PC, IGCC and NGCC plants with and without CO2 capture. All coal plant data are for bituminous coals only. PC plants are supercritical units only (see Tables 3.7, 3.9, 3.10 and 3.15 for additional assumptions). The cost of CO2 avoided corresponds to the slope of a line connecting a plant with capture and a reference plant without capture (i.e., the change in electricity cost divided by the change in emission rate). Avoidance costs for the same type of plant with and without capture plant are given in Table 3.15. When comparing different plant types, the reference plant represents the least-cost plant that would ‘normally’ be built at a particular location in the absence of a carbon constraint. In many regions today, this would be either a PC plant or an NGCC plant. The cost per tonne of CO2 avoided can be highly variable and depends strongly on the costs and emissions of new plants being considered in a particular situation. See Chapter 8 for the full COE and full cost of CO2 avoided for different plant types. technologies. This assessment suggests that improvements to current commercial technologies can reduce CO2 capture costs by at least 20-30% over approximately the next decade, while new technologies under development promise more substantial cost reductions. Achieving future cost reductions, however, will require deployment and adoption of commercial technologies in the marketplace as well as sustained R&D. 3.8 Gaps in knowledge Gaps in knowledge are related to differences in the stages of development of component technologies for the capture systems reviewed in Sections 3.2 to 3.5. For CO2 capture from industrial processes, a number of technologies that are commonly used in natural gas sweetening and ammonia production are already used on a commercial scale. For other types of industrial systems capturing CO2 from steel and cement production, further work is still needed. For CO2 capture that might be reliant on post- combustion capture or oxy-fuel combustion, options are less well developed, or are available at a smaller scale than those required for applications such as in power generation, where The other category combines CO2 capture with upgrading or repowering the existing plant to significantly improve its efficiency and net power output (see Sections 3.7.4.2 and 3.7.5.2). In general, the latter option appears to be more cost- effective. However, further site-specific studies are required to systematically assess the feasibility and cost of alternative repowering options in conjunction with CO2 capture for existing power plants. New or improved methods of CO2 capture, combined with advanced power systems and industrial process designs, promise to significantly reduce CO2 capture costs and associated energy requirements. Tables 3.12 to 3.14 summarize the results from recent studies that examine future options. As discussed earlier, there is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude and timing of future cost reductions, as well as the potential for costs to rise above current estimates, especially for technologies still in the early stages of research and development. The current assessment is based on studies of the specific technologies in Tables 3.12 to 3.14 (and the supporting discussions and literature cited in Sections 3.7.9 to 3.7.12), as well as analyses of historical cost trends for related energy and environmentalPDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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