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354 IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage Figure 8.5 Relationship between (1) the imputed share of CCS in total cumulative emissions reductions in per cent and (2) total cumulative CCS deployment in GtCO2 (2000–2100). The scatter plots depict values for individual TAR mitigation scenarios for the six SRES scenario groups. The vertical dashed lines show the average share of CCS in total emissions mitigation across the 450 to 750 ppmv stabilization scenarios, and the dashed horizontal lines illustrate the scenarios’ average cumulative storage requirements across 450 to 750 ppmv stabilization. at the stabilization of CO2 concentrations at 750 ppmv to 54% for 450 ppmv scenarios.13 However, the full uncertainty range of the set of TAR mitigation scenarios includes extremes on both the high and low sides, ranging from scenarios with zero CCS contributions to scenarios with CCS shares of more than 90% in total emissions abatement. Top-down and bottom-up energy-economic models have been used to examine the likely total deployment of CCS technologies (expressed in GtC). These analyses reflect the fact that the future usage of CCS technologies is associated with large uncertainties. As illustrated by the IPCC-TAR mitigation scenarios, global cumulative CCS during the 21st century could range – depending on the future characteristics of the reference world (i.e., baselines) and the employed stabilization target 13 The range for CCS mitigation in the TAR mitigation scenarios is calculated on the basis of the cumulative emissions reductions from 1990 to 2100, and represents the average contribution for 450 and 750 ppmv scenarios across alternative modelling frameworks and SRES baseline scenarios. The full range across all scenarios for 450 ppmv is 20 to 95% and 0 to 68% for 750 ppmv scenarios respectively. 8.3.3.1 Cumulative CCS deployment (450 to 750 ppmv) – from zero to more than 5500 GtCO2 (1500 GtC) (see Figure 8.6). The average cumulative CO2 storage (2000–2100) across the six scenario groups shown in Figure 8.6 ranges from 380 GtCO2 (103 GtC) in the 750 ppmv stabilization scenarios to 2160 GtCO2 (590 GtC) in the 450 ppmv scenarios (Table 8.5).14 However, it is important to note that the majority of the six individual TAR scenarios (from the 20th to the 80th percentile) tend to cluster in the range of 220–2200 GtCO2 (60– 600 GtC) for the four stabilization targets (450–750 ppmv). The deployment of CCS in the TAR mitigation scenarios is comparable to results from similar scenario studies projecting storage of 576–1370 GtCO2 (157–374 GtC) for stabilization scenarios that span 450 to 750 ppmv (Edmonds et al., 2000) and storage of 370 to 1250 GtCO2 (100 to 340 GtC) for stabilization scenarios that span 450 to 650 ppmv (Dooley and Wise, 2003). Riahi et al. (2003) project 330–890 GtCO2 (90–243 GtC) of stored CO2 over the course of the current century for various 14 Note that Table 8.5 and Figure 8.6 show average values of CCS across alternative modelling frameworks used for the development of the TAR mitigation scenarios. The deployment of CCS over time, as well as cumulative CO2 storage in individual TAR mitigation scenarios, are illustrated in Figures 8.5 and 8.7.PDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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