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I. Carbon Removal in the Real Economy Interest in CDR among entrepreneurs and investors has grown significantly in the past decade, and particularly after the IPCC published its 2018 report. As CDR technology evolves and experts reach a consensus that the world must creatively incorporate a variety of solutions in mitigating climate risks, companies see an opportunity to both become profitable and offer solutions to fighting climate change. Firms have raised capital, conducted research, and tested their technologies. But widespread commercialization is still distant. For instance, so far only one company – Climeworks AG, which is based in Switzerland – has an operating commercial DAC plant. Two companies in North America – Global Thermostat and Carbon Engineering – are nearing commercialization in this space. Another startup, Infinitree – based in Cold Spring Harbor, New York and founded in 2014 – is also developing DAC technology, but is lagging behind the others in the commercialization process. Despite the lack of public investment in CDR technology, progress among the DAC companies reflects the promise of this technology. However, the nascent industry faces many challenges: For DAC to have a significant impact on emissions, it must be wide-scale and economical. See Figure 3 below: The three leading DAC companies have raised almost $170 million since 2009, a paltry amount compared to capital expenditures of other industries. The success of these DAC companies is crucial for the viability of the industry for the longer term. If they do not achieve an economic scale, investors may become even more cautious. Should the companies succeed, it would open the door for more entrants and an influx of capital. However, the scale needed is massive – a study led by Jan Minx of Germany’s Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change says that in order to capture the necessary amount of CO2 to keep warming at 1.5 ̊C to 2 ̊C through the end of the century, the world would need to build “several hundred” facilities every year between 2030.3 Figure 3. Direct Air Capture Investment (2009-18) Versus Other Industries (2018) Note: DAC number is based on capital received from investors 3 Minx, Jan, et al. “Negative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis.” Environmental Research Letters. May 22, 2018. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9b 9PDF Image | Carbon Removal Final Report
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