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Based on conversations with a variety of stakeholders, investors are eyeing companies working on carbon removals but see minimum “deal-quality”—there is not yet a strong enough business case to invest in companies and the industry is not yet near maturity. Private equity, venture capitalists, wealthy individual donors, angel investors, integrated companies and governments have all contributed to funding companies working with CDR technology, whether they are corporations, start-ups, or university pilot programs, but many still lack sufficient funds and are only slowly seeing commercial prospects. The ghost of the 2008 economic recession and losses in renewable energy for venture capitalists early this decade still hover over the financial sector, prompting potential investors to remain cautious. Traditional venture capitalists veer toward industries such as pharmaceuticals and software, both of which provide relatively short payback periods. By contrast, carbon removal requires large-scale infrastructure investments and growth and profits will occur over long-term horizons. Given that the tax credit for DAC just recently went into effect, it is too early to tell how much of an impact this measure will have overall. In the next few years, demonstrating the feasibility of the technology and how costs could be reduced will be key developments to watch. Companies’ success with using DAC technology to convert CO2 into commercial products that turn a profit in the coming years and decades will depend on the overall economics of the marketplace, the levels of risk investors are willing to take on new companies, and what policy levers are implemented to hasten deployment. Nonetheless, given the growing interest, enthusiasts of the technology believe the industry is on the cusp of reaching a turning point, saying that once the economics are favorable and the right policy levers are in place, the marketplace will be “de-risked”—established companies will see their products become more widespread and newer firms will also enter the marketplace. Others, however, are less optimistic, noting the financial hurdles may be too high to overcome and the trepidation of established companies, such as oil companies or cement makers, to integrate CDR technologies in their businesses may take longer than anticipated. Moreover, the capital-intensive nature of the CDR industry suggests to some stakeholders that technologies will be deployed slowly.8 New Research Sheds Light on Price of Carbon Currently, Global Thermostat, Carbon Engineering and Climeworks are the leaders in DAC because of their early investments in this space, their financial support, and name recognition. Climeworks, based in Switzerland, is already operating commercial DAC plants, but on a small scale. The relative success of these three companies indicates that commercial operation is possible, but also shows the large number of obstacles the industry must overcome before becoming self-sustainable and having an impact on reducing global carbon emissions. Carbon removal would become economically feasible on a large scale if there is a price on carbon at the federal level in the United States. Even if carbon pricing comes to realization, it’s unclear what overall costs would be. So far, the literature is sparse on how much carbon removal will cost, but recent groundbreaking research has shed light in this area, a big development for industry and investors. Global Thermostat and Carbon Engineering say they are nearing the threshold of $100 per ton, making DAC close to becoming an economic reality.9 Carbon Engineering last June published an article in the scientific journal Joule describing its process for DAC and its ability to reduce costs to below $100 per ton. The company’s analysis, which is the first paper with a breakdown of engineering costs for DAC, shows that 8 Ahmad, Fatima. “CO2 Utilization: A Look Ahead.” Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. January 2017. https://www.c2es.org/document/co2-utilization-a-look-ahead/#_ednref16 9 Keith, David. “Climate Change Breakthrough: Large-scale capture of atmospheric CO2 shown to be feasible and affordable.” Carbon Engineering. June 7, 2017. http://carbonengineering.com/climate-change-breakthrough/ 11PDF Image | Carbon Removal Final Report
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