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What do Ebola, SARS, Nipah and hantavirus have in common? All four viruses originated in wildlife and spread to people. Across the world, scientists are scrambling to understand deadly new diseases. They study the viruses in a race against time in hopes of developing vaccines and preventing epidemics. However, the virus is only one half of the equation, says Angie Luis, UM assistant professor of population and disease ecology. “I would argue that it’s important to understand what’s happening in the wildlife if we want to prevent these spillovers into humans,” Luis says. Her research embraces the wide field of population, community and disease ecology to answer big questions. What leads to outbreaks? What are the environmental triggers? Can we predict when outbreaks will occur? How does transmission from animals to humans work? Luis currently focuses on two wildlife disease hosts: mice and bats. She applies mathematical models fed with reams of data to come up with patterns that can lead to answers. Discuss the power of math applied to wildlife biology, and Luis reveals her passion right away. “I find mathematical modeling really powerful,” says Luis, who joined UM’s College of Forestry and Conservation in 2014 after completing postdoctoral research at Princeton University in ecology and evolutionary biology. “We can predict things.” Predicting Hantavirus Outbreaks In 2015, Luis produced significant results that could mean fewer deaths from hantavirus, a disease transmitted from deer mice to people and one that’s relevant to Montanans. While cases are few, the mortality rate is one out of three. “We can potentially predict the times of increased risk of hantavirus months in advance,” she says of her published research in the journal Ecology. Luis is the lead author with three co-authors of “Environmental fluctuations lead to predictability in Sin Nombre hantavirus outbreaks.” The predictive ability resulted from analyzing 20 years of field data in the state gathered by her colleagues at Montana Tech in Butte. “Their data show huge fluctuations in mouse populations and hantavirus prevalence within the mice,” she says. UM graduate student Andreas Eleftheriou holds a mouse in a study area near Polson. (Angie Luis photo) Vision 2016 31 Crowded mice Portends Hantavirus When mice reach a density of at least 17 per hectare (2 1/2 acres) outbreaks result, but not right away. Luis explains that if mice reach very high densities of 70 per hectare, the transmission rates increase and an outbreak could occur about four months later. The lower the density of mice, the longer the time lag. A density of 35 mice per hectare would give 11 months’ warning before hantavirus becomes a real threat. “The time lag gives us time to warn people to take precautions,” Luis says. The most common way to contract hantavirus is from contact with fresh droppings, and spraying them with a bleach solution kills the virus. The challenge is to monitor mice population changes in differing habitats to predict outbreaks with accuracy, says Luis. For example, mice may skyrocket in numbers after plentiful rainfall leads to lush plant growth and seeds that mice eat. Yet not all parts of the state have similar conditions. Heat-Stressed mice more Vulnerable The Luis lab now is investigating hantavirus in mice related to climate change and competition with other species for food. When it’s hot outside, we might head indoors to stay cool. For mice, higher temperatures may add stress that depresses the immune system and invites replication of UM researcher Angie Luis uses mice and bats as a model to study population and disease ecology. sPDF Image | Carbon Vision 2016
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