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The New Carbon Economy is a description of the third horizon (H3) reality we are aiming for. Some of the other concepts and tools introduced in this paper are part of the second horizon (H2) world of experimentation and innovation. They are important insofar as they help move us towards the third horizon/New Carbon Economy, but their usefulness may be time-limited. H2 concepts like Carbon Productivity and Return on Carbon Employed are designed to tap into existing (H1) mindsets and learned behaviours — to maximise productivity and returns — whilst bridging towards a very different future (H3), in which industrial value creation and the carbon cycle are brought into harmony with one another. When this transformed world is realised, terms like Carbon Productivity will either become obsolete or go through their own process of transformation, shedding old meanings and taking on new ones. There is another, less optimistic, possibility, which is that concepts like Carbon Productivity, rather than helping to bridge towards the New Carbon Economy, actually help to sustain today’s failing system, by making it marginally less bad. Several respondents to an earlier draft of this paper raised concerns that, in focusing heavily on concepts like productivity, we may be trying to solve global warming with the same mindset that caused the problem. This is a risk we take seriously and we recognise the need to guard against it. However, on balance, we see it as a risk worth taking for the simple reason that we cannot afford to wait for a new paradigm to emerge fully-fledged. (In any case, new paradigms never emerge fully-fledged: transformative change is always messy and multi-layered.) We need both to adapt existing mindsets, systems and behaviours and to invent new ones. It’s too late for an either/or approach. Given the climate crisis we already face, we must find ways to engage today’s economic engine to deliver on the needs of tomorrow — and if thinking in terms of productivity, efficiency, value and growth helps us do that, so much the better. 5PDF Image | Our Carbon Future White Paper
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