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14 COMMUNICATING THE VALUE OF CO2 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Subsectors • Respondents felt clearly that construction materials hold the most promise in both the short term (54%) and long term (46%), while chemicals also had high potential in the short and long term (38% and 35%, respectively) (Figure 11). Construction materials and chemicals represent the two largest industrial sectors considered here. The responses reflect high confidence that consumption in these sectors will continue to provide both the greatest economic opportunity, as well as providing robust markets that represent the most significant CO2 sequestration potential. • Enhanced oil recovery, the best proven use case to date, is expected to fade in the long term, perhaps due to the anticipation of carbon taxes or vehicle electrification depressing the size of the market (and thus, both economic and CO2 sequestration potential). • Respondents believe fuels show promise in the long term. However, unless CO2 emissions associated with fuel combustion are recaptured and used or sequestered, fuels are not an effective long-term sequestration strategy. Confidence in this sector may reflect a belief that fuels will emerge as an effective storage medium for excess renewable electricity production. • The high numbers for chemicals stand in contrast to a recently released study, which predicted that the markets for concrete and aggregates ($165B - $550B) and fuels ($10B - $250B) would likely dwarf that of chemicals ($1B - $12B) by 2050.3 This may speak to more insight and/or optimism into those subsectors by respondents who have some stake in it. • There is relatively little interest in “new materials,” which include the likes of carbon fiber, carbon nanotubes, and carbon-based nanoparticles, although respondents identified it as a growth sector. This may reflect the opinion that these materials have not yet gained significant enough industrial market sizes to sequester CO2 on the order of magnitudes required by the climate prerogative. It may also reflect the fact that while these materials have shown promise at a small scale, few have been realized at a commercial scale. Nevertheless, these materials are estimated to be among the fastest-growing material sectors.4 Evidence suggests they may even be able to enhance or supercede traditional materials, such as concrete and structural steel, and play an important role in emerging energy technologies, such as in the manufacture of electrodes used in batteries and fuel cells. Regions • Forty seven percent (47%) of respondents felt that Europe was the most active region in this space, while 39% chose North America. • Europeans identified their home continent as more active in this space (67%), while North Americans showed a slight preference (51%) for their own. • Asked which countries/regions are most active in this space, the U.S. and Canada received more mentions than others (22 and 21, respectively, out of 79), with Germany leading among European countries (13 mentions). 3 Global Roadmap for Implementing CO Utilization, CO Sciences and the Global CO Initiative November, 2016, p. 7. 222 4 “Carbon Nanotubes Market Size Worth USD 8.1bn by 2024: Global Market Insights Inc.”, 2016. [Online]. Available: https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2016/08/31/868341/0/en/Carbon-Nanotubes-Market-size-worth-USD-8-1bn-by-2024-Global- Market-Insights-Inc.html[Accessed: 01-Nov-2016].PDF Image | Xprize Carbon Communicating Value CO2
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