Opportunities Synergy Natural Gas and Renewable Energy

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2.1.3 Looking Ahead The rapid ascendency of shale gas has caught many in the energy sector by surprise, prompting a host of unexpected and significant departures from historical trends as energy markets readjust toward equilibrium in the near term. Looking ahead, the emergence of unconventional gas resources has also considerably altered the calculus of medium- and long-term energy options, with potentially major implications for the long-term evolution of the U.S. energy portfolio. How Many Years of Natural Gas Supply? Reported supply longevity of natural gas varies widely—from 80–250 years and depends on many factors.h While that metric could serve as a useful indicator for planning and policymaking purposes, it is important to understand some of the technical uncertainties embedded within this simple estimate. Supply Technically recoverable resources (TRR), an indicator of total available gas supply, include both proved reserves (technically and economically producible now) and unproved resources (technically but not necessarily economically producible). TRR estimates vary as a result of using new data or different assumptions for various factors, including: • Geological assessments of oil and gas fields • Field productivity based on observed and predicted well recovery rates • Current and expected improvements to drilling and production technologies • Current gas market prices and other economic conditions The materialization in recent years of huge unconventional sources of natural gas, such as shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane, has added significant uncertainty to these estimates.i Industry experience with unconventional resources, particularly shale gas, has been too brief and inconsistently documented to permit confident estimation of resource field productivities. Other sources of natural gas, including methane hydrates and renewable natural gas (RNG) could play a large role in the future but are currently at very early stages of development.j See, for example, Potential Supply of Natural Gas in the United States. (2012). Potential Gas Agency.; “FAQs: hiNatural gas.” International Energy Agency. Accessed September 7, 2012: http://www.iea.org/aboutus/faqs/gas/; “Issues in Focus #11: U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Resource Uncertainty.” (2012). EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012. According to the National Petroleum Council’s (NPC’s) compilation and assessment of industry, government, and academic natural gas resource estimates, “the United States’ unconventional, remaining recoverable resource base is around 60 to 75% of the total remaining gas volumes in the United States” (National Petroleum Council. Prudent Development: Realizing the Potential of North America’s Abundant Natural Gas and Oil Resources. National jPetroleum Council, 2011. Accessed August 29, 2012: http://www.npc.org/reports/rd.html). A recent study estimated that approximately 4.8 tcf of domestic RNG, a substitute for conventional natural gas that can be produced from biomass wastes, was potentially available (Mintz, M.; Wegrzyn, J. “Renewable Natural Gas: Current Status, Challenges and Issues.” Clean Cities Program, U.S. Department of Energy, 2009. Accessed August 30, 2012: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/cleancities/pdfs/renewable_nat ural_gas.pdf; National Petroleum Council. Renewable Natural Gas for Transportation. National Petroleum Council, 2012. Accessed August 31, 2012: http://www.npc.org/FTF_Topic_papers/26RNG.pdf). Early assessments of methane hydrates, ice-like lattices of water with natural gas trapped inside, indicate vast resource potential if able to be technically recovered (NETL. Energy Resource Potential of Methane Hydrate. National Energy Technology Laboratory, 2011. Accessed September 6, 2012: http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil- gas/publications/Hydrates/2011Reports/MH_Primer2011.pdf; Boswell, R. “Resource Potential of Methane Hydrate Coming into Focus.” Journal of Petroleum Science & Engineering (56:1-3), 2007; pp. 9-13). 10

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