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3 U.S.ElectricPowerSector 3.1 Background The U.S. electric power sector is currently experiencing unprecedented change due to a combination of low-priced natural gas, stricter forthcoming environmental standards, and rapid growth of renewable energy. These changes have led to a swift decline in coal- and oil-fired generation and corresponding increases in natural gas and renewables (Figure 7). Coal-fired generation has declined from roughly 48% of annual net U.S. generation in 2008 to approximately 35% as of mid-2012.54 This is arguably one of the most tumultuous periods of change in the power sector since World War II. It remains to be seen whether this shift from coal to natural gas and renewables will continue or reverse itself as natural gas prices fluctuate relative to coal and incentives for renewable energy expire. Installed wind capacity in the United States grew by more than five times between 2005 and mid-2012 to approximately 50 gigawatts (GW).55 Wind electricity generation grew by more than seven times over the same time period.56 Solar energy generation grew by more than five times57 over the period, with the vast majority of that growth coming from solar PV capacity additions. However, on an absolute level, wind and solar still represent modest contributions of total electricity generation, representing only 3.5% of total U.S. net generation in 2012.58 The fleet of natural gas combined cycle plants has operated more regularly over the past few years, largely at the expense of coal plants, increasing in some independent system operator (ISO) regions dramatically. The weighted average capacity factor for combined cycle plants operating in the PJM Interconnection’s service territory, for example, was more than double the level from 2008 during the first three months of 2012.59 One important set of dialogues that has accompanied the rise of natural gas has recently commenced on better coordinating the natural gas and electricity sectors. FERC is largely spearheading this effort between ISO/regional transmission operator (RTO) and natural gas transmission companies. The following section of this report explores that, and other power sector dynamics, in more detail. 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Coal Petroleum Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables 350 300 250 200 150 100 Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal 50 Biomass 0 Figure 7. Annual U.S. net generation, 2002–July 2012 (left), and U.S. renewable energy generation, 2002–July 2012 (right)60 16 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E Terawatt-hours Terawatt-hoursPDF Image | Opportunities Synergy Natural Gas and Renewable Energy
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