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3.2 AnOptimizedDiverseElectricityPortfolio Natural gas and renewable energy technologies enjoy many complementarities spanning economic, technical, environmental, and political considerations. These complementarities arise from their similarities, which include improved environmental performance compared to coal and oil and their ability to contribute to a robust U.S. economy, but it is from their dissimilarities that the biggest opportunities for mutually beneficial collaboration can be found. For electric power stakeholders with multiple assets under their purview, investment decisions on new electric power projects are based on the evaluation of many factors, including: project costs and financing, fuel supply availability, current and projected future market dynamics, local and federal energy policies, environmental regulations, and portfolio diversity. Embedded within each of these factors are varying types and magnitudes of risk, including: financing interest rates, fuel supply uncertainty and price volatility, and environmental compliance costs. Investments in new generation capacity have historically been made project-by-project on a primarily least-cost basis, which does not adequately incorporate risk as represented by the variance of expected future costs. This has led to the development of sub-optimal regional electricity portfolios with inefficiently higher levels of risk given portfolio costs.61 Traditional integrated resource planning (IRP) by utilities attempted to incorporate the concept and benefits of portfolio optimization as well as utilize non-supply resources such as demand- side management (DSM).62 However, these strategies still focused primarily on minimizing the costs of a planned generation mix across a selection of possible future scenarios without sufficiently incorporating the economic cost of risks or valuing the minimization of these risks.k,63 A simple example is fuel price volatility. Many IRP models assumed specific future fuel prices in their cost calculations, or considered a set of possible future prices, but did not incorporate the volatility of those prices. Large short-term (daily, weekly, or monthly) fluctuations in fuel prices introduce considerable generation and revenue variability not conveyed by the use of long-term average costs and revenues (see Figure 8 for an example). These types of portfolio risks were poorly accounted for in IRP models yet have major consequences for energy reliability. Today, IRP models have evolved along a variety of paths, particularly with respect to evaluating portfolio risks. Some utilities now employ scenario and sensitivity analysis, stochastic analysis, orl a combination of both to better incorporate portfolio risk assessment into the planning process. Risk minimization is as important as cost minimization. Multiple benefits accrue from developing markets and policies conducive to building optimized portfolios with efficient levels of both risk and cost. More robust methods of portfolio evaluation and planning that incorporate explicit valuation of risks, such as mean-variance portfolio techniques, can help stakeholders k For an overview of state IRP programs, see Wilson, R.; Peterson, P. (2011). “A Brief Survey of State Integrated Resource Planning Rules and Requirements.” Prepared for the American Clean Skies Foundation. Cambridge, MA: lSynapse Energy Economics, Inc. For a comparison of selected utilities’ IRP practices and approaches to risk assessment, see Aspen Environmental Group and Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (2008) “Survey of Utility Resource Planning and Procurement Practices for Application to Long-Term Procurement Planning in California - DRAFT.” Prepared for the California Public Utilities Commission. 17PDF Image | Opportunities Synergy Natural Gas and Renewable Energy
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