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3.2.1 Natural Gas Issues 3.2.1.1 Fuel Supply and Transportation Issue: Domestic natural gas supply is on the rise due to shale gas; total supply estimates continue to be refined as the shale gas experience continues to unfold. Long-term fuel availability will greatly affect the profitability of new natural gas plants in the latter years of their service period. Growing natural gas consumption by the electric power and other sectors increases the 65 challenges associated with gas pipeline constraints, which can cause market-based price spikes and necessitate investments in new infrastructure.66 Additionally, the ability of current pipeline systems to handle changing gas consumption patterns in the power sector—from generally low utilization rates and sporadic peak demands to overall much higher and continuous utilization rates—are a source of reliability concern, particularly during peak seasonal demand periods.67 Cost allocation approaches to funding new infrastructure and ensuring reliable pipeline service to natural gas generators are the subject of current dialogue. Complementarity: Renewable energy generation, such as wind and solar, does not experience the same market-based fuel supply concerns as natural gas generation. “Fuel” supply is guaranteed from a cost standpoint with no exposure to or dependence on market dynamics. (However, there is significant resource variability and uncertainty risk.) 3.2.1.2 Fuel Price Volatility and Generating Costs Issue: Natural gas prices have experienced significant historical volatility since the deregulation of gas prices in the late 1980s. This has been attributed to a number of factors, including higher levels of short-term purchasing, financial trading activity, large variations in seasonal demand, cross-sectoral demand interactions, and the diversity of market participants.68 Gas price volatility translates to significant generating cost variance for natural gas plants. There is much debate over the future level of gas price volatility, especially given the numerous potentialities of natural gas across sectors (e.g., export of LNG and use as transportation fuel). While recent near- to mid-term projections indicate a range of $4–$8/MMBtu out to 2035 (depending on supply and demand as well as economic growth),69 price variability adds additional risk to future costs. Complementarity: Like cost minimization, long-term cost certainty also has important economic value to an electricity portfolio.70 Renewable energy technologies, such as wind and solar, have zero fuel costs and relatively fixed generating costs when adequately geographically distributed.71 This cost stability reduces the variance of expected future costs, reducing overall portfolio risks.72,n 3.2.1.3 Renewable Portfolio Standards Issue: Twenty-nine states and Washington, D.C., currently have mandatory RPS programs in place, while eight more have voluntary goals. The requirements vary widely but most rise to a n For a quantitative analysis of the value of reducing fuel price risk within a resource portfolio, see Bolinger, M.; Wiser, R.; Golove, W. (2002). Quantifying the Value that Wind Power Provides as a Hedge against Volatile Natural Gas Prices. LBNL-50484. Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. 19PDF Image | Opportunities Synergy Natural Gas and Renewable Energy
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