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garner support for both options.76 In the long-term, renewable energy investments will not be subject to future cost risk of environmental compliance measures and instead may find additional revenue streams from their environmental benefits should low-carbon policies be implemented. 3.2.2 Renewable Energy Issues 3.2.2.1 Cost-Competitiveness Issue: After natural gas, wind has been the second-largest contributor of new capacity, with particularly strong growth in the past five years.77 However, only the most favorable wind sites, coupled with supportive state and federal policies, can compete with natural gas on a purely levelized cost basis. Less favorable wind sites, solar, and other renewable energy technologies remain costlier or selectively competitive until continued learning curve efficiency gains and cost reductions are made. Relative inexperience and difficulties with siting and permitting also add costs. The limited cost-competitiveness of renewable energy technologies in the near-term deters greater levels of deployment. In addition, the relatively high capital cost of renewable projects could risk being deemed imprudent by regulators evaluating from a least-cost perspective and insufficiently valuing the mitigation of long-term operating cost variability. Complementarity: Natural gas plants have low upfront costs, with fuel costs and associated price risks largely passed on to consumers (when deemed prudent by regulators) in wells-established fuel adjustment clauses (FAC) and purchased gas adjustment (PGA) mechanisms. Low natural gas prices lower overall levelized costs of energy and will continue to do so in the short term. 3.2.2.2 Uncertain State and Federal Incentives Issue: The recent surge in new wind capacity has resulted from a package of supportive policies and incentives, including the federal production tax cret dit (PTC), investment tax credit (ITC), the Recovery Act’s Section 1603 Treasury grant program, state RPS programs, and decreasing technology costs. The PTC, in particular, has been instrumental in driving record year-on-year increases in new wind capacity but is set to expire at the end of this year. The impending expiration has already had effects on the industry with virtually no new wind turbine orders for delivery in 2013.78 Continued growth of wind capacity and the nascent U.S. wind manufacturing industry will depend on continued policy support until cost-competiveness is attained. In August 2012, the Senate Finance Committee approved a temporary tax extender package that extends the PTC and ITC for one year; however, final congressional action remains to be taken. In the meantime, this continuing policy uncertainty affects the industry’s ability to make long-term investments and secure favorable financing. r The levelized cost of energy methodology is a simple and useful tool for comparing various energy options; however, it can be misleading in its inability to incorporate important factors that cannot be easily quantified. s While regulatory prudence reviews provide a mechanism to engender responsible fuel supply procurement, they do not completely remove the asymmetry of risk burdens between utilities and consumers that FACs and PGAs create. t For an outlook of U.S. renewable energy financing in 2012, see Sharif, D.; Grace, A.; Di Capua, M. (2011). “The Return – and Returns – of Tax Equity for U.S. Renewable Projects.” Commissioned by the Reznick Group. New York, NY: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Additional literature on renewable energy financing can be found at http://financere.nrel.gov/finance/publications. 21PDF Image | Opportunities Synergy Natural Gas and Renewable Energy
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