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Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 5049 14 of 22 • If the same financial model is considered (Cases 1–2, Cases 3-4), the lowest LCoEs are achieved by plants presenting better performance metrics (higher CF and Eyear), as observed in Figures 7a,b and 8a,b. Based on this foreseeable result, increasing the capacity factor of a plant (and therefore its annual yield) is confirmed to be of capital importance to increase the feasibility of sCO2-based CSP plants. Based on the foregoing results, it is difficult to ascertain the best power cycle, given that the three power cycles yield very similar LCoE in the order of 8.5–9.5 g/kWh, see Figure 8a,b. Moreover, the small differences observed lie within the cumulative uncertainty incurred by all the assumptions made throughout the analysis. Figure 9 presents the final comparison of LCoE for the reference plant using the power cycles considered. The length of each bar comes determined by the values taken by LCoE for the different cases considered in Table 6. The lowest cost of electricity is obtained for the best combination of the Allam cycle (8.33 g/kWh), while the worst case based on the Partial Cooling cycle yields the highest LCoE (11.02 g/kWh). Interestingly, the range of LCoE for plants based on steam turbine technology falls entirely within the values covered by the other cycles. This confirms the lack of a clear, unambiguous conclusion about the optimum CSP plant concept stemming from this work, as suggested in the introductory section of the paper. To the authors’ opinion, however, this result does confirm the large potential of sCO2 power cycles for CSP applications, which must be considered as a solid alternative to the standard steam Rankine cycle approach in spite of the apparently marginal gain suggested by Figure 9. Such a strong statement is based on the fact that, even if the results obtained are still far from the 6 g/kWh target set by the SunShot programme (or 3 g/kWh in the longer term), it must not be forgotten that the LCoE values presented in this paper for sCO2 are estimates based on deliberately conservative assumptions. For instance, the utilisation of molten salts that are less costly than FLiNaK, which is a reasonable assumption for an actual power plant in the future, would certainly cut down installation costs and, therefore, LCoE by a large fraction given the dominant role of the Thermal Energy Storage System in determining the economic performance of the plant. This is a very likely possibility in the near future which would cut LCoE down for the sCO2 cases in Figure 9 but would not affect the cost of the steam-based case. Therefore, it may as well be the case that mid-term CSP plants employing Allam and Partial Cooling cycles are able to achieve LCoEs lower than those obtained in this research, and closer to the SunShot objective, once the very strong economies of scale that are characteristic of CSP start impacting sCO2 power blocks. There is no reason why a cost decline similar to that experienced by conventional CSP-STE plants cannot be experienced by this new technology in the near term. Figure 9. Range of Levelised Cost of Energy (LCoE) for CSP plants based on different power cycles. With this in mind, it is concluded that more accurate part-load models and integration schemes in SAM or equivalent software will prove that either the Allam or Partial Cooling cycle layouts have the potential to make a strong case for the next generation of CSP plants based on sCO2 power cycles,PDF Image | Supercritical CO2 Power Solar Power Plants
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