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Table 9.4 Economic Costs and Benefits of the Geothermal Projects (US$ Million) Project PV Benefits (US$) PV Costs (US$) PV of Net Benefits (US$) 99 111 101 97 179 587 819 152 971 80 61 79 78 128 426 307 75 382 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Dominica Phase 1 Grenada Nevis Saint Lucia Subtotal (projects supported by Phase 1 of the Fund) Dominica Phase 2 Saint Kitts Subtotal (projects supported by later phases of the Fund) Total 1,557 19 50 22 19 51 161 511 78 589 807 750 The levelized cost of energy indicates that geothermal is competitive with many other types of generation Dominica (Phase 1) and Saint Lucia have the highest net economic benefits of the projects that will be implemented with funding from Phase 1 of the Fund. There are two reasons for this. First, Dominica has invested significantly in exploration and only needs to carry out the field development stage to complete its geothermal project. As a result, this project faces lower economic costs. Saint Lucia has the highest net economic benefit because the power plant is the largest of the projects with funding in Phase 1. This means that the fixed costs for the pre-investment stages are offset by larger economic benefits driven by a larger generation capacity. Saint Vincent, Nevis, and Grenada have lower net economic benefits, but they are still positive. This is because these countries must complete the exploratory stage and their plant sizes are relatively small. Dominica Phase 2 and Saint Kitts have the highest net economic benefits because they are larger plants. However, they will be developed at a later date, so will be supported by the later phases of the Fund. We have calculated the levelized costs of the geothermal projects to assess the competitiveness of the geothermal plants with other technologies. We found that the levelized cost of geothermal generation is significantly lower than the current cost of generation in the beneficiary countries and is also lower than many of the alternative energy technologies in the Eastern Caribbean. The average levelized cost of the geothermal generation projects proposed in the strategy is US$0.118 per kWh, ranging from US$0.081 per kWh in Dominica Phase 2 to US$0.147 per kWh in Grenada. In contrast, the levelized cost of heavy fuel oil is higher. For example, the average levelized cost of heavy fuel oil estimated for 2023 for Bahamas, Barbados, and Bermuda is US$0.17.120 These countries have electricity sectors of similar size and make-up to those in the countries included in our study and so can be used as a reference for heavy fuel oil (HFO) levelized costs in the region. We present the levelized cost for each project, our methodology for calculating the levelized cost, and the levelized cost of geothermal generation compared to other technologies. 9.3.2 120. These figures are Castalia estimates based on the financial statements included in the utilities’ 2014 annual reports and the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2015 oil reference price estimations. EIA, “Annual Energy Outlook 2015 with projections to 2040,” April 2015, accessed May 23, 2016, http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2015).pdf. 66PDF Image | Unlocking Geothermal Power Eastern Caribbean Powerhouse
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