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Table 9.8 Expected Tariff with Geothermal Generation for Each Country Current Electricity Tariff (US$/kWh) Estimated PPA Rate (US$/kWh) Tariff for Geothermal (US$/kWh) Generation with Geothermal (%) Expected Tariff with Geothermal Generation (US$/kWh) Reduction in the Tariff Due to Geothermal (%) 0.37 0.32 0.32 0.37 0.35 0.32 0.09 0.14 0.15 0.19 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.22 0.23 0.29 0.22 0.25 68.6% 87.2% 98.3% 30.6% 46.4% 30.4% 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.34 0.29 0.30 Dominica Phase 1 Nevis Saint Kitts Grenada Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Saint Lucia Average 0.34 0.15 0.23 60.3% 0.27 34.5% 27.6% 28.2% 6.8% 18.2% 6.3% 20.3% Source: The generation mix comes from the generation forecast from the energy supply curve projected for the publication: IDB and Castalia, “Sustainable Energy in the Eastern Caribbean: Achieving an Unrealized Potential” (2015). Notes: Reductions in tariffs take into account all decimals. We did not calculate the impact of the Dominica Phase 2 project on the tariff because this project would supply electricity to three countries: Dominica, Martinique, and Guadeloupe, and we do not have the information necessary to carry out this calculation. The expected generation from geothermal was calculated as the expected annual generation from geothermal when the plant is operating with an 85 percent capacity factor divided by the gross generation in 2014. The financial model allows for making this analysis using the total generation of later years. 9.3.5 The geothermal projects will improve national accounts The development of geothermal projects will have a positive impact on the economies of the beneficiary countries. In addition to reductions in the average tariff to customers, another of the main, most tangible benefits is the reduction in the imports of fuel oil or diesel. Implementing the projects will lead to a reduction of fuel oil imports of an estimated value between US$8 million and US$21 million for each project and a total of US$51 million129 for the first phases of the projects (five projects total). Below, we describe these impacts and how they are calculated. Replacing fuel oil generation with geothermal generation will reduce the importation of fuel oil. This will benefit the countries’ accounts by improving their current accounts and probably their foreign exchange reserves. The annual importation of fuel oil is expected to fall by an average of 144,401 barrels for each project. This would reduce the average fuel imports by US$8 million to US$17 million per project per year. For the Dominica Phase 2 and Saint Kitts projects, the reductions in fuel imports will be higher. The annual imports of fuel oil are expected to fall by an average of 335,216 barrels for each project when the project to serve Saint Kitts and the second phase of the Dominica project are also considered. To calculate the reduction in fuel imports, we calculated the amount of electricity from fuel oil generation that would be replaced with electricity from geothermal generation. We then calculated the amount of fuel required to produce that amount of electricity being replaced to determine the reduction in fuel imported. Lastly, we used two prices for fuel oil to determine the value of the reduction in the importation of fuel. Table 9.9 provides the expected reduction in fuel imports for each project. 129. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Short-Term Energy Outlook,” April 7, 2015, accessed April 27, 2015, http://www.eia. gov/forecasts/steo/report/. The value is based on an oil price of US$70 per barrel. This is the expected 2016 average West Texas Intermediate (WTI). The financial model that supports this report allows for running the analysis for different scenarios of oil price. 72PDF Image | Unlocking Geothermal Power Eastern Caribbean Powerhouse
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