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Phase 1: 10.5 MW power plant to meet domestic demand This generation plant would meet Dominica’s current baseload demand of about 10 MW245 (expected to grow to 16 MW by 2023).246 Since the government has drilled an 11 MW commercial production well for this plant, the first phase of the project may only include the construction and operation of the power plant. The government initially expected the plant to be fully operational by 2016,247 but no agreements have been signed with a developer yet. The government has not determined how it will structure the transaction to finance, build, and operate the power plant. Its original plan was to develop the project in partnership with EDF. However, EDF withdrew from the project in 2013 due to low profitability of the investment.248 The government recently identified a new private developer that could develop the power plant. In April 2014, a consortium of the French GDF Suez Group, CDC infrastructure, and NGE Group informed the government of its interest in developing the project.249 In addition, AFD and World Bank have said they would fund a 15 MW plant.250 The Clinton Climate Initiative is supporting the government in its negotiations with the consortium.251 There are no published cost estimates for building the power plant, and estimates vary significantly. Preliminary estimates indicate that carrying out the remaining production drilling and building a 10 MW power plant costs about US$52 million.252 The construction of transmission lines and access roads would increase the total cost to about US$68 million. Another cost estimate, developed by the West Japan Engineering Consultants Inc., indicates that the cost of building a prototype 20 MW power plant is about US$40 million. Their cost estimate increases to US$58.22 million when costs of physical contingencies, consultant fees, and administrative expenses are included.253 The government will almost certainly need outside financing to develop the 10 MW plant given the government’s total estimated capital expenditure budget for FY 2014/15 of about US$170 million (already accounting for loans and grants).254 The government’s next steps include finishing some of the preparatory work required for the project and completing the project agreements. This includes completing an environmental and social baseline study, and upgrading the transmission and distribution lines of the local grid. The government expected to complete the environmental and social baseline study in June 2015.255 The government would need to finish upgrading the grid so that it is operational by the time the power plant is completed. The project agreements the government must develop include an agreement with a developer to build, finance, and operate the power plant. It would also facilitate the signing of a PPA with DOMLEC (which will be the project’s off-taker). 245. World Bank, “Got Steam? Geothermal as an Opportunity for Growth in the Caribbean,” Caribbean Knowledge Series, June 2013, accessed March 6, 2014, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/06/21/000442464_2013 0621142703/Rendered/PDF/786080WP015.0G00Box377349B00PUBLIC0.pdf. Estimated as 60 percent of peak demand. 246. Based on recent growth trends. 247. Government of Dominica, “Geothermal: The Next Generation” (The Caribbean Renewable Energy Forum, March 2014). 248. “French Company, EDF, Reported to Have Withdrawn from Dominica’s Geothermal Project,” Dominica News Online, April 15, 2013, accesed November 4, 2014, http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/homepage/news/french-company-edf-could-withdraw-from- geothermal-project/. 249. “French Consortium Plans to Revive Large Project in Dominica,” ThinkGeoEnergy, April 15, 2014, accessed December 3, 2014, http:// www.thinkgeoenergy.com/french-consortium-plans-to-revive-large-project-in-dominica/. 250. “French AFD Prepared to Finance 15MW Project in Dominica,” ThinkGeoEnergy, July 3, 2013, accessed December 3, 2015, http://www. thinkgeoenergy.com/french-afd-prepared-to-finance-15-mw-project-in-dominica/; “Work to Begin on Domestic Geothermal Plant This Fiscal Year,” Dominica News Online, August 4, 2015, accessed December 3, 2015, http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/homepage/ news/economy-development/work-to-begin-on-domestic-geothermal-plant-this-fiscal-year/. 251. Leslie Labruto, “Tripartite Partnership: Clinton Climate Initiative, Rocky Mountain Institute–Carbon War Room, and IRENA Lighthouses” (Presentation given in Martinique, June 24, 2015). 252. Financial model that accompanies this report, based on information from: IDB, “Sustainable Energy Facility (SEF) for the Eastern Caribbean: Loan Proposal RG-L1071, RG-G1009, and RG-G1004” (2015), accessed December 2, 2015, http://www.iadb.org/en/projects/ project-description-title,1303.html?id=RG-L1071; Magnus Gehringer and Victor Loksha, Geothermal Handbook: Planning and Financing Power Generation (Washington, DC: The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Technical Report 002/12, June 2012), accessed October 22, 2014, http://www.esmap.org/sites/esmap.org/files/DocumentLibrary/FINAL_Geothermal%20Handbook_TR002- 12_Reduced.pdf. 253. West Japan Engineering Consultants, Inc., “Study on Current Status of Geothermal Development in the Eastern Caribbean Islands: Field Trip Report and Study Tour in Costa Rica,” March 2014. 254. Government of Dominica, “Budget Address for Fiscal Year 2014/15,” July 23, 2014, accessed October 30, 2014, http://finance.gov.dm/ phocadownload/budget_addresses/budget_address_2014_2015.pdf. 255. Government of Dominica, “Geothermal: The Next Generation” (The Caribbean Renewable Energy Forum, March 2014). 106PDF Image | Unlocking Geothermal Power Eastern Caribbean Powerhouse
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