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We describe the largest risks for the project and their proposed mitigation measures below: • The government cannot find a suitable project developer or cannot agree on the terms of the concession or other project documents—This is the biggest risk for the project. However, we believe that the government should be able to find a good project developer to partner with in developing the geothermal power plant given that this project is financeable and has low risk. The interest expressed by the consortium of the French GDF Suez Group, CDC infrastructure, and NGE Group indicates that finding a good project developer should not be a major risk. • The project developers are not able to raise the financing needed for the project (Financing Risk)—Another major risk for the project is that the project developers are not able to raise the financing needed for the project. The project developers would be unable to raise financing if investors or lenders did not believe that the project was financially viable. Specifically, they may be unwilling to invest if there are large, unmitigated risks, such as resource risks, or if the expected cash flows are highly uncertain or will not allow them to earn the required return on their investment. However, the interest indicated by the World Bank and AFD in financing the project signals that this should not be a major risk.267 In addition, the concession agreement and PPAs will mitigate this risk by ensuring that the SPV has access to the resource and a guaranteed revenue stream. In addition, the SPV may have access to concessionary financing for the project. 12.3.3 Strategy for engaging key stakeholders One of the most important aspects of the Phase 1 project is that it is a pilot project for Phase 2 and would allow the government to develop the relationships needed to successfully implement Phase 2. As a result, the government’s strategy should focus on building relationships and not just on putting in place the agreements for the 10.5 MW power plant. In addition to engaging the public, the government should actively engage the following stakeholders during the project’s development and implementation: • Potential project developers—The government should regularly consult potential project developers to ensure that they are aware of the opportunity to invest in Dominica, to identify and address any major concerns that project developers may have, to ensure that the project is sufficiently attractive to investors, and to assess the capacity and expertise of the developers. Consulting project developers before procuring a concession agreement or finalizing the project structure can allow the government to structure a good project and to get the most attractive offer. In addition, updating potential project developers throughout the development of the Phase 1 project could help them become interested in the Phase 2 project. • DOMLEC—The government must consult and work with DOMLEC to develop a PPA that DOMLEC will sign. A PPA is essential for the success of any geothermal projects and, since DOMLEC is privately owned, the government cannot simply require DOMLEC to sign the PPA. • Multilateral development banks— The government should work with multilateral development banks so that it receives financial assistance needed to develop this project and to establish the relationships needed to develop the Phase 2 project. Specifically, the government will need to work with AFD, which has promised to fund the project, and potentially with the other multilateral development banks. • Électricité de France (EDF)—The government should keep EDF updated on Phase 1’s progress because EDF will be the off-taker for the geothermal power plant developed in Phase 2. Keeping EDF updated on the progress of Phase 1 will mean that it will be ready for Phase 2 and know what to expect from the project. • The Independent Regulatory Commission— The government should actively involve the IRC in the development of the geothermal power plant for Phase 1. This will ensure that the IRC has the knowledge necessary to understand how geothermal generation will impact DOMLEC and be able to account for it in its tariff decisions. In addition, it will allow the IRC to better assess DOMLEC’s performance and expansion planning. 267. “Work to Begin on Domestic Geothermal Plant This Fiscal Year,” Dominica News Online, August 4, 2015, accessed December 3, 2015, http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/homepage/news/economy-development/work-to-begin-on-domestic-geothermal- plant-this-fiscal-year/. 111PDF Image | Unlocking Geothermal Power Eastern Caribbean Powerhouse
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