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We describe several of the largest risks for the project and their proposed mitigation measures below: • The government cannot find a suitable project developer or cannot agree on the terms of the concession or other project documents (Market Risk)—One of the key risks for Phase 2 of geothermal development in Dominica is that the government may not be able to find a project developer with the skills required, or that the government and the project developer do not agree on the terms of the concession. As mentioned earlier, the government should find a project developer with a proven track record in geothermal development, experience with undersea interconnection cables, and access to financial resources. To mitigate this risk, the government should take advantage of relationships with potential project developers that it established during Phase 1 and should receive support with the negotiation of project agreements from multilateral development banks. The government may also be able to use financing from multilateral development banks to reduce the project’s risks and costs. This would allow it to develop a project that is attractive to bidders. • EDF and the SPV cannot agree on the terms for the PPA (Market Risk)—If EDF and the SPV cannot agree on the terms for the PPA, the project will probably not be financeable. However, this risk is reduced because the French government has stated that EDF intends to purchase geothermal power from Dominica.268 • The project developers are not able to raise the financing needed for the project (Financing Risk)—Another major risk for the project is that the project developers are not able to raise the financing needed for the project. The project developers would be unable to raise financing if investors or lenders did not believe that the project was financially viable. Specifically, they may be unwilling to invest if there are large, unmitigated risks, such as resource risks, or if the expected cash flows are highly uncertain or will not allow them to earn the required return on their investment. However, the proposed concession agreement and PPAs will mitigate this risk by ensuring that the SPV has access to the resource and a guaranteed revenue stream. In addition, the SPV may have access to concessionary financing for the project. The multilateral development banks can help reduce this risk by offering concessionary financing for the project. • The interconnection cables cause environmental damage (Environmental Risk)—There is the risk that the interconnection cables will cause environmental damage. To mitigate this risk, the government should get donor support to carry out an EIA. This will allow the government to identify and mitigate any potential impact. In addition, the government can ensure that the project developer has experience constructing undersea interconnection cables. 12.4.3 Strategy for engaging key stakeholders The government’s strategy for engaging stakeholders for Phase 2 of the project should be similar to its strategy for Phase 1 (see Section 12.3.3). The main difference may be that the government should update stakeholders over a longer period of time, and that the government should communicate the success and lessons learned from Phase 1. An additional difference is that stakeholder engagement during this phase will require more active consultation with EDF, and will also require consulting and engaging the public in Martinique and Guadeloupe. 268. “French AFD Prepared to Finance 15MW Project in Dominica,” ThinkGeoEnergy, July 3, 2013, accessed December 3, 2015, http://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/french-afd-prepared-to-finance-15-mw-project-in-dominica/. 115PDF Image | Unlocking Geothermal Power Eastern Caribbean Powerhouse
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