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We describe each of the major risks and their proposed mitigation measures below. • The government and the NIA are not able to identify a project developer for the project (Market Risk)—The government and the NIA have not yet identified the project developers for the project. This phase of the project requires a larger investment than the project to provide electricity in Nevis. As a result, investors could suffer bigger losses if the project was not successful. Despite carrying out a study to identify possible routes for the interconnection cables between Nevis and Saint Kitts, an in-depth feasibility study assessing the economic viability of building the interconnection cables to export electricity to Saint Kitts has not been developed. Until one is done, investors cannot assess the profitability of the power plant. Multilateral development banks could provide funding for this study. The risk of not finding a project developer will also be largely reduced if Phase 1 of the project (which will provide electricity to Nevis) reaches successful completion. This would make the Phase 2 project to serve Saint Kitts a brownfield development, and would provide good information on the geothermal resource. It will make the project to provide electricity in Saint Kitts more attractive to potential developers. The developer of Phase 1 could also become the developer of Phase 2. • SKELEC cannot meet the payments under the PPA (Financing Risk)—Another risk for the project is that SKELEC is not able to make the payments of the PPA rate to the SPV. As discussed in Section 14.2.1, publicly available information suggests that SKELEC operates inefficiently and is not able to recover its costs through tariffs. The payment support mechanism included to back SKELEC’s payments under the PPA will reduce this risk. • The SPV is not able to raise funding for the project (Financing Risk)—A major risk for the project is that the SPV is not able to raise the financing needed for the project. This would occur if financiers believe that the project is not bankable. Having PPAs in place with the off-takers will reduce this risk since the project’s revenues will be known. The payment support mechanism for SKELEC’s payments under the PPA will help mitigate this risk further. Providing a payment support mechanism on SKELEC’s payments will ensure that the project receives the revenue stream to repay debts and investors. In addition, the SPV will probably have access to concessionary financing that can lower the cost of financing the project and make it more attractive to lenders. 161PDF Image | Unlocking Geothermal Power Eastern Caribbean Powerhouse
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