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To calculate the net benefits of the projects, we subtract the PV of the project’s costs from the PV of the project’s benefits. We use a social discount rate of 12 percent (in real terms), which is the rate that the IDB recommends be used in all IDB projects.439 We estimate the economic benefits and costs of the geothermal projects as follows: Economic costs: • Capital Expenditures (Capex)—These are the capital investments needed to complete the project stages that are pending for each specific project. As such, the costs included vary by project. For example, for the projects in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Saint Kitts, Nevis, and Saint Lucia, we include the costs for completing the exploration stage (test drilling) and the field development stage (production drilling and power plant construction) and building the transmission and distribution grid and access roads. For Phase 1 of the project in Dominica, we only include the power plant construction costs and building the transmission and distribution grid and access roads, whereas for Phase 2 we also include costs for production drilling and for building the undersea interconnection cables. Economic benefits: • Savings in generation costs—Generating electricity from geothermal resources can potentially cost less than generating electricity from fuel oil. Therefore, the country will save in generation costs by replacing fuel oil generation with geothermal generation. We estimate the savings to the country as the difference between the Total Avoided Cost (TAC) of fuel oil generation and the Total Operating Costs (TOC) of geothermal generation. We use the following formulas to make this calculation: TAC (US$)= Avoided Cost of (US$) × Generation from Geothermal (kWh) Fuel Oil Generation (kWh) Avoided Cost of Fuel Oil Generation (US$) = Total Fuel Cost (US$) (kWh) Total Energy Sold (kWh) TOC (US$)= Operating Costs (US$) × Generation from Geothermal (kWh) from Geothermal (kWh) • Reduction in CO2 emissions—Generating electricity from geothermal resources produces less CO2 emissions than generating electricity with fuel oil. We calculate the economic benefit of the reduction in CO2 emissions as the product of the expected reduction in CO2 emissions and the social cost of CO2 emissions. The expected reduction in CO2 emissions is the product of the CO2 emissions per unit of electricity produced from fuel oil and the units of electricity produced from geothermal generation. Appendix B: Methodology and Assumptions for Financial Analysis We use the DCF methodology to determine whether the geothermal project is financially viable to equity investors. To do so, we estimate the returns that equity investors would earn for investing in the project. That is, we estimate the value of the geothermal project to equity investors based on the cash flows that they receive from the operations of the geothermal power plant. Table A.2 presents the main assumptions we use for forecasting the cash flows of the project. These are indicative assumptions based on our knowledge of and experience in project finance and geothermal projects, as well as information on the projects of study that is publicly available to date. Nevertheless, the final terms of the debt, equity, and project variables will be finalized and agreed to by the parties to the project. After the table, we describe the DCF methodology in further detail. The results of the financial analysis for each country are presented in Part C of this document. 192PDF Image | Unlocking Geothermal Power Eastern Caribbean Powerhouse
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