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Text Box 2-3. Managing the “Duck Curve” In California, initiatives such as the state renewable portfolio standard requiring 60% of retail electricity from renewable power by 2030—combined with available solar resources and rapidly declining levelized cost of electricity for solar (Cole et al. 2016)—have resulted in increased deployment of variable-generation renewable energy. As a result, new conditions have emerged, requiring operational changes to balance the grid (California Independent System Operator [CAISO] 2013, Denholm et al. 2015). CAISO analyzed changing grid conditions to determine how real-time net electricity demand changes with policy initiatives. CAISO’s results indicate that, with growing penetration of renewables on the grid, there are higher levels of non-controllable, variable generation. As a result, the independent system operator must direct controllable resources to match both variable demand and variable supply (CAISO 2013). This is best illustrated through a review of net load profiles, which have the appearance of the industry-recognized “duck curve” (Figure 2-15). 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 2012 20,000 2013 18,000 2014 16,000 14,000 2018 2015 2016 2020 12,000 10,000 0 2019 Over-generation risk Ramp need 2017 ~13,000 MW in three hours 12a.m. 3a.m. 6a.m. 9a.m. 12p.m. 3p.m. 6p.m. 9p.m. Hour Figure 2-15. Past and projected net-load profiles to 2020 on a typical spring day in California, illustrating the “duck-curve” effect with steep ramping needs and over-generation risk Source: CAISO 2013 The duck curve reflects an oversupply of energy in the middle of the day, sometimes resulting in negative pricing and curtailment (requirements to restrict generation) in the “belly” of the duck. As curtailment increases, the economic and environmental benefits of variable renewable generation decrease. In the case of increased solar curtailment, the overall benefits of additional solar could drop to the point where future installations are not economic (Denholm et al. 2015, Cochran et al. 2015). As solar generation falls off toward the evening hours—when demand is rising—the result is a net load profile resembling the “neck” of the duck, with increased ramping and load-following requirements over ever-shorter time periods (projected to be 13 GW in three hours by 2020) (CAISO 2013). CAISO identified several essential grid services—such as frequency regulation, ramping and voltage support, and reserves—required to balance net loads and ensure grid reliability. Geothermal power plants are among the energy-generation technologies that can operate flexibly and provide services to help in balancing load and accommodating the deployment of an increasingly diverse energy-generation mix that includes more variable generation. 32 Chapter 2 | What is Geothermal Energy? Megawatts Chapter 2PDF Image | What is Geothermal Energy
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