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TA 4.R: Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Brayton Cycle Market Opportunities The recompression sCO2 Brayton cycle allows the extraction of thermal energy at a high temperature differential, while compression at relatively high density results in low parasitic compression work, contributing to the high efficiency of the cycle and the anticipated lower capital cost due to reduced size. The market includes diverse applications, opportunities for improved economics, and expanded market potential with successful R&D. Benefits that would accrue from successful R&D of the sCO2 power conversion cycle include the following: 1. Diverse applications: The recompression sCO2 Brayton cycle can be configured to operate with a variety of heat sources including nuclear, fossil-fuel, renewables such as concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) and geothermal, and waste heat, offering a very broad range of applications. 2. Improved economics: The sCO2 Brayton cycle technology, with successful R&D, may be able to provide improved overall economics and operating conditions (e.g., higher efficiencies [lower fuel costs, lower GHG emissions], lower capital costs, reduced water usage) across various applications, infrastructures, and scales. 3. Market growth through successful R&D: Initial R&D activities are expected to result in technological and economic advantages for subsystems and components, which will help influence early industry participation and commercial adoption at the component level. As R&D activities advance beyond an initial demonstration, the technology is expected to achieve higher operating temperatures, allowing for increased potential market opportunities at scalable levels of power generation. At this point, both the full-system and new sub-components/technologies (that apply to larger scales and higher temperatures) may be adopted by industry. Later RD&D activities will leverage industry and stakeholder input and are expected to result in an increase in demand (once technical risks are resolved) for a full-system at low MWe levels. In 2013, a commercialization review for sCO2 Brayton cycle technology found that, if successfully developed, it could have applicability across various power generation applications and might offer significant economic advantages over current technologies.38 Due to the technical challenges briefly described above and associated uncertainties in technology development, cost, and performance, market projections are highly speculative and additional research is required to better understand initial applications as well as applications where industry demand would be highest. An extensive market review with industry stakeholders that leverages market/ economic data to identify early adopters and determine future market projections would help clarify some of these issues. Commercialization of sCO2 Brayton cycle technology will depend on various financial, technical, regulatory, social, and value chain factors. These must be properly understood and addressed before commercialization and market risks are alleviated. In order to reduce the risks associated with these factors, it will be essential to support smaller scale projects that mitigate potential risk elements. In addition, as R&D activities advance, the sCO2 Brayton cycle is expected to achieve higher operating temperatures, allowing for increased potential market opportunities. This progress should be measured on a long-term timescale, with various factors affecting the rate of deployment within given applications. Initial market opportunities for complete systems (offerings from 5 to 10 MWe) will be more clearly understood after concerns about technical risks have been addressed through demonstration. In the early stages of complete system deployment, the market opportunities are for small (<10 MWe) installations that operate at temperatures below 550°C. Initial applications that meet these criteria include small geothermal facilities or the installation of a sCO2 Brayton cycle as a bottoming cycle for small (< 100 MW) turbine systems, for both new plants and potentially for retrofit plants. As the technology advances, sCO2 technology will start to compete with traditional cycles based on expected cost advantages associated with efficiency, capital costs, and operating costs. 18 QuadrennialTechnologyReview2015PDF Image | Advancing Clean Electric Power Technologies
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