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Combined Heat and Power at Wastewater Treatment Facilities

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Combined Heat and Power at Wastewater Treatment Facilities ( combined-heat-and-power-at-wastewater-treatment-facilities )

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4.2.4 National Economic Potential Scenarios Using the cost-to-generate results presented in the previous subsection and the 2008 CWNS data, national economic potential estimates were developed. Two scenarios were evaluated due to uncertainties in 2008 CWNS data: • Scenario 1: Most Facilities Do Not Use Digester Gas Prior to CHP. This scenario assumes that the 2008 CWNS data on how WWTFs use their digester gas are completely accurate, meaning that most WWTFs with anaerobic digesters do not use their biogas in any way. As mentioned in Section 3.2, however, there are limitations to using CWNS data, and the CWNS finding that biogas is used minimally is inconsistent with research and interviews conducted as part of this report. • Scenario 2: All Facilities Use Digester Gas to Heat Digester Prior to CHP. This scenario assumes that the research conducted in preparing this report is correct, and that most WWTFs use their digester gas to heat the digester. For the purposes of the analysis, Scenario 2 assumes that all WWTFs use their digester gas to heat the digester only and use natural gas for any additional space heating needs prior to CHP implementation. For both scenarios, the analysis estimates the national economic potential by estimating the simple payback period for each WWTF and summing all CHP system sizes (MW) that have a payback period of seven years or less. The analysis was done for each WWTF in the United States greater than 1 MGD that has an anaerobic digester but does not have CHP installed. Payback period was determined by dividing the total capital investment for CHP by the total annual savings achieved through CHP use.35 The results show an economic potential range for CHP of 178 to 260 MW at WWTFs greater than 1 MGD with anaerobic digesters, with Scenario 1 providing an upper bound and Scenario 2 the lower bound. Details concerning each of the scenario analyses are discussed below. Scenario 1: Most Facilities Do Not Use Digester Gas Prior to CHP Scenario 1 assumes that the 2008 CWNS data are completely accurate, indicating that most WWTFs with anaerobic digesters do not use their biogas in any way. Based on research and through the facility interviews conducted as part of this report, however, the authors believe that most WWTFs use at least some of their digester gas. The CWNS data suggest otherwise—that 1,148 of the 1,351 facilities evaluated do not use their digester gas. As a result of this discrepancy, the analysis of the CWNS is presented here as a scenario of what the economic potential could be if the CWNS data were fully accurate, and the scenario is meant to serve as an upper bound of CHP economic potential. 35 Total annual cost savings were calculated by adding the annual electric and natural gas bill savings and subtracting the annual maintenance costs. Annual electric bill savings were derived from annual CHP electrical output multiplied by state average industrial electricity prices from 2010 (EIA). Annual natural gas bill savings were estimated using the thermal credit calculation described in Section 4.2.3 on cost to generate that were based on annual avoided gas purchases for each potential project, using 2010 state industrial natural gas prices (EIA). Annual maintenance costs were derived from the maintenance costs as shown in Table 12, multiplied by the CHP annual electric output. 24

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