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6.0 Sensitivity Analysis Acknowledging that any power producing facility would be subject to both operational and market based constraints, sensitivity analysis was conducted to consider and quantify applicable limitations on a GT-CAES facility relative to capacity and dispatch economics under current market conditions, to better understand how the market for this energy storage approach might evolve. 6.1 Plant Capacity and Energy As modeled, supply pressure from the CAES wells deteriorates (if fixed at 35 total wells), causing the pressure to the first expander to decay over time. However, with the second and third expanders operating below the minimum well pressure, their respective output will remain constant even as the pressure to the first expander diminishes. The simulation was configured to determine the power vs. time curve and the average power was determined by numerical integration. The net power increase and round trip efficiency with air recovery is shown in Figure 6.1 for projects fully utilizing the geothermal resources available via 1 and 3 “average” wells (supporting 35 and 105 CAES wells, respectively). When normalized across the recovery period, these cases may offer 11.7 to 35.3 MW of capacity with round-trip efficiencies of 46%. Table 6.1. Potential Power Decay During CAES Well Recovery Number of Air Wells Condensing Steam Turbine Power Extraction Steam Turbine Power EXP1 EXP2 EXP3 Net Increase in Power Expansion (Generation) Compressiona (Load) Round Trip Efficiency 35 (2,006) 522 2,764 4,623 5,815 11,718 46,872, 101,724 105 (6,018) kW 1,534 kW 8,469 kW 13,869 kW 17,445 kW 35,299 kW 141,196 kWh 305,172 kWh During expansion this power is lost Simulation numbers Average over the recovery period Simulation numbers Simulation numbers Expansion over 4 hours daily Compression over 12 hours daily 46% (a) Calculated as the average compressor power at 242.2 kW per well, total of 35 wells or 105 wells. 46% 6.2 Arbitrage Economics Conceptually, the GT-CAES plant would be compressing air off-peak for approximately 12 hours per day, and extracting air during the power generation cycle for 4 hours per day (17% capacity factor). Assuming consumption of grid supplied energy (compression) always occurs during hours of low demand (for the purposes of the analysis coincident with 10 pm to 10 am), and power is generated (expansion) during the late afternoon when demand is typically highest (5 pm to 9 pm), the impact of the respective power market on plant operations and the price of power was evaluated. These intervals were selected to represent a reasonable, average range, but do not necessarily reflect “on-peak” and “off-peak” periods as defined by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). Pricing data were obtained for the CAISO day-ahead market, consolidated across all three trading hubs, and used to evaluate a range of operating scenarios which would function to establish economic 24PDF Image | Geothermally Well Based Compressed Air Energy Storage
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