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RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COST TRENDS: 2010 TO 2019 In 2019, data from the IRENA Renewable Cost Database demonstrated the ongoing competitiveness of the mature renewable power generation technologies – hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal. This data also showed a continued improvement in the competitiveness of solar and wind power technologies. The global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV fell by 13% year-on-year in 2019 – slightly lower than the 15% reduction experienced in 2018 – driven by declines in module prices and balance of system costs (Figure 1.1). Onshore and offshore wind both experienced a year-on-year decline of around 9%. For onshore wind, this was similar to the experience in 2018, but for offshore, it was a significant increase on the 3% recorded in 2018. Cost reductions for onshore wind were driven by falls in turbine prices and balance of plant costs. Figure 1.1 Global LCOE from newly commissioned utility-scale renewable power These saw the global weighted-average total installed cost of onshore wind fall below USD 1500/kW. Another factor in reducing costs was the continued improvement in technology, leading to an increase in average capacity factors. Between 2010 and 2019, the global weighted-average LCOE of bioenergy projects commissioned fell 13%, while that of offshore wind by 29%. For onshore wind, the figure fell by 39%, that of CSP by 47% and that of solar PV by a precipitous 82%. The global weighted-average LCOE of geothermal projects, where the market is very thin2, increased by 50% between 2010 and 2019, to USD 0.073/kWh3 in 2019. For newly commissioned projects, the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV fell by 82% over 2010-2019, from USD 0.378/kWh to USD 0.068/kWh (Figure 1.2), as global cumulative installed capacity of all solar PV (utility-scale and rooftop) increased from 40 GW to 580 GW. This reduction has been primarily driven by declines in module prices – which have fallen by around 90% since 2010 – and balance of system costs. Together, these factors led to total installed costs of utility- scale solar PV to fall by almost four-fifths between 2010 and 2019. Capacity factors have also risen, but predominantly due to a shift in the share of deployment to regions with better solar resources. The global weighted-average LCOE in 2019 of USD 0.068/kWh is at the lower end of the range for new fossil fuel-fired electricity projects, while utility- scale solar PV projects are increasingly undercutting even the cheapest new fossil fuel-fired option.4 Over the period 2010 to 2019, the global weighted- average cost of electricity from CSP fell from USD 0.346/kWh to USD 0.182/kWh when two Israeli projects that were much delayed and came online in 2019 are excluded.5 That decline is even more remarkable when taking into account that global cumulative installed capacity at the end of 2019 was just 6.3 GW. Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database. LATEST COST TRENDS 1.0 0.9 0.8 -1.2% -8.8% -9.2% -13.1% 2019 Concentrating solar power Onshore wind Solar photovoltaic 2018 Offshore wind 2 New capacity additions for geothermal in 2010 were 225 MW and in 2011, just 89 MW. As a result, these years are not particularly representative of recent geothermal cost trends. 3 All cost data in this report is expressed in real, 2019 United States dollars (USD), that is to say, taking into account inflation. 4 The fossil fuel-fired power generation cost range by country and fuel is estimated to be between USD 0.05/kWh and USD 0.177/kWh. The lower bound represents new, mine-mouth coal-fired plants in China. 5 These two utility-scale projects in Israel were much delayed and as a result were contracted while CSP costs were significantly higher than today. They also use what is now considered an uneconomic configuration. Given the thin market for CSP, these two projects have an outsized impact on the global weighted average. Figure 1.2 includes both the weighted-average value without these plants, to track the underlying trend in CSP costs, as well as with the plants included, to show their impact on 2019 numbers. 21 Percentage reductionPDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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