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Some variation naturally exists, given the different coverage of each dataset and the fact that the O&M and weighted average cost of capital assumptions in the LCOE database may diverge from what’s implied by the Auction and PPA data. Bearing in mind these caveats, the data shows that for onshore wind, the global weighted-average price for electricity from the 27 GW of utility-scale onshore wind projects in the Auction and PPA Database expected to be commissioned in 2020 will decline to USD 0.045/kWh, and to USD 0.043/kWh in 2021 for the 25 GW of capacity in the database expected to be commissioned in that year (Figure 1.3). Given the potential slippage in commissioning of some of the projects in the database due to the impact of efforts to control the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, it is possible that a small number of onshore wind projects commissioning dates may slip into 2021, but what impact this will have on the global weighted-average electricity cost for onshore wind for 2020 and 2021 is not yet clear. It is therefore likely that, compared to 2019, the cost of electricity from onshore wind will fall by a further 18% between 2019 and 2021. Of the projects in the Auctions and PPA database that are expected to be commissioned in 2021, 62% (15 GW) have electricity costs lower than the cheapest fossil fuel-fired new capacity option, which stands at USD 0.05/kWh. Figure 1.3 The LCOE and PPA/Auction prices by project for solar PV, onshore wind, offshore wind and CSP, 2010-2023 LATEST COST TRENDS 0.4 0.378 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.346 Solar photovoltaic Concentrating solar power Onshore wind Offshore wind 0.259 0.182 Auction database 0 .086 0.075 0.161 0.039 0.043 0.082 Fossil fuel cost range Note: For CSP, the dashed blue bar in 2019 shows the weighted average value including projects in Israel. LCOE database Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database. Note: Each circle represents an individual project LCOE (blue dots), or an auction result (orange dots), where there was a single clearing price at auction, for the actual or estimated year of commissioning respectively. The centre of the circle is the value for the cost of each project on the Y axis. The thick lines are the global weighted average LCOE, or auction values, by year. For the LCOE data, the real WACC is 7.5% for OECD countries and China, and 10% for the rest of the world. The band represents the fossil fuel-fired power generation cost range. 25 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 USD/kWhPDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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