RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019

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RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019 ( renewable-power-generation-costs-in-2019 )

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RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2019 replicable and modular nature of solar PV project development — and a narrowing of country-level price differentials for solar PV modules (although there are exceptions, such as the United States and Japan), this means that the most competitive cost structures for solar PV are increasingly less affected by individual project characteristics than for other renewable power generation technologies. Variation remains, both within and between countries, but those with competitive markets can expect to see convergence of installed costs with best practice levels, as local supply chains become more competitive and developers gain more experience. The reduction in solar PV installed costs has been driven by cost reductions in PV modules. Between December 2009 and December 2019, module prices fell by between 87% and 92% for crystalline silicon modules, depending on the type. These module price reductions have been driven by a number of factors. First, by the continued improvement in module efficiency. This acts by reducing the surface area required for the same power output, driving down materials costs and some balance of system costs directly influenced by surface area. Second, by improvements in manufacturing that have reduced materials costs (e.g., diamond-wire sawing); third, by reduced labour costs through improved productivity and increased factory automation; fourth, by economies of scale in manufacturing, along with vertical integration of the manufacturing process from polysilicon production to module manufacture; and finally, by increased competition among suppliers. Between December 2018 and December 2019, the decrease in installed costs for crystalline silicon module-based projects was driven by module price declines of between 4% (for “low-cost” modules) and 12% (for “high-efficiency” modules). In December 2019, benchmark prices for modules in Europe ranged from USD 211/kW for low-cost manufacturers' products, to USD 267/kW for mainstream manufacturers’ products (pvXchange, 2020). At the same time, benchmark prices for high-efficiency modules stood at USD 367/kW. The year 2019 also saw the emergence of the widespread deployment of bifacial modules, which boost output by allowing reflected light onto the back of a panel to be captured. Currently, these retain a cost premium in Europe, averaging around USD 445/kW in December 2019, but the premium is often lower elsewhere. Balance-of-system (BoS) costs12 have fallen slightly less rapidly than module costs. This is in part due to very different levels of domestic market maturity (as, for example, evidenced in the degree of project developers’ experience), as well as structural differences in local labour and manufacturing costs. Different support policy structures also end up influencing competitiveness. Having said that, there are now a number of examples where, with the right regulatory and policy settings, new markets have emerged that have been able to take advantage of international developer experience and local civil engineering expertise to rapidly scale local supply chains and achieve very competitive cost structures in 1-2 years. This ability to rapidly achieve competitive cost structures in a very short time frame, sets today’s solar PV market apart from that of five years ago. It is also behind the growing number of very competitive solar PV auction and Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) results in new markets. The growth of these new markets for solar PV has also seen an increasing proportion of the market located in areas with excellent solar resources. This has led to the global weighted-average capacity factor increasing from 14% in 2010 to around 18% today. In addition to the shift to deployment in areas with better solar resources, there have been some improvements in the overall efficiency (e.g., in reducing inverter losses) of utility-scale solar PV systems. These have been dwarfed by the resource quality impact in the period of IRENA’s data, but the emergence of bifacial modules as the new electricity cost-minimising choice in some markets already for projects achieving financial close — and likely in a growing number over time — could provide another boost to capacity factors. 28 12 BoS costs for solar PV include cable and wiring, grid connection, racking and mounting, safety and security, electrical and mechanical installation, customer acquisition, financing costs, permitting, system design and profit margin.

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