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30 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2019 The global weighted-average total installed cost of onshore wind farms thus declined by 5% in 2019, year-on-year, falling from USD 1549/kW in 2018 to USD 1473/kW in 2019, as wind turbine prices continued to decline, while ongoing reductions in BoS costs also occurred. Indeed, the cost declines experienced over the year appear to have come more or less evenly from both factors. Initial data suggests turbine prices declined by between 5-6% in 2019. Total installed costs declined year-on-year in 2019 by 9% in India, 5% in the United States and China, and 34% in Spain, with the United Kingdom experiencing a 2% increase. The figure for Spain is somewhat exaggerated, as the market has only just revived. A comparison to the more presentative 2017 total installed costs yields a reduction of 13%. Improvements in wind turbine technology have resulted in larger rotor diameters, swept blade areas, name plate capacities and hub-heights. This has driven an improvement in capacity factors that means today’s turbines harvest more electricity from the same resource than their predecessors. As a result, overall energy output has been on the rise, leading to a consistent trend towards higher capacity factors, globally. Between 2010 and 2019, the global weighted-average capacity factor for onshore wind increased by almost a third, from just over 27% in 2010 to 36% in 2019. The year 2019 saw an increase of around 5%, from 34% in 2018 to 36%. There has also been wide variation between countries in capacity factor growth and average capacity factor levels. Between 2010 and 2019, Brazil, Denmark and Spain experienced increases in weighted-average capacity factors in excess of 40%, while Canada saw an increase of 21%, China, 24% and France, 25%. In absolute terms, in 2019, the weighted-average capacity factor of new projects added in Brazil hit 51%, while the weighted-average was 44% in the United States, 39% in Spain, and 32% in both China and India. In 2019, the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind, at USD 0.053/kWh, was just 6% higher than the cheapest new source of fossil fuel- fired electricity (coal, which had an LCOE of around USD 0.05/kWh). The country-level weighted average LCOE for new projects commissioned in 2019 was lower than the cheapest fossil fuel-fired option in Argentina, where the weighted-average LCOE was USD 0.049.kWh, as well as in Brazil (USD 0.048/kWh), China (USD 0.047/kWh), Egypt (USD 0.049/kWh), India (USD 0.049/kWh), Finland (USD 0.039/kWh), Sweden and the United States (both at USD 0.046/kWh). Onshore wind is now consistently undercutting fossil fuels in a growing number of markets, often by a substantial amount. Offshore wind Total installed costs of offshore wind farms declined by 18% between 2010 and 2019. Given that some years saw a relatively thin market for offshore wind, however, with deployment being dominated in different years by markets in different stages of maturity, there is a significant degree of year-on- year volatility in the total installed costs of newly commissioned offshore wind farms. The global weighted-average installed costs for offshore wind declined from USD 4650/kW to USD 3800/kW between 2010 and 2019 (Figure 1.6). A range of factors are behind this, with the overall evolution in installed costs being driven by efforts to reduce the overall cost of electricity from a project. As a result, there are some factors that push up individual cost components, while at the same time reducing others. The trend to larger turbines is one example of this. Per kW, these tend to be slightly more expensive, but they create savings when it comes to installation – and in some cases, foundations – as well as helping reduce Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs, while increasing capacity factors (with higher hub- heights and swept areas). In Europe up to around 2013, the shift to deployment farther offshore and in deeper waters, as well as the fact that supply chains were only just beginning to scale meant that in some cases upward pressure on installed costs occurred due to increasing installation, foundation and grid connection expenses. More recently, however, most of these factors have either plateaued (e.g., distance from shore) or are starting to now generate cost reductions. These have occurred most notably via the achievement of economies of scale and greater competition in supply chains, with optimised logistic hubs for multiple-GW wind farm zones and increased developer experience.PDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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