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5 500 5 000 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 Total installed cost Capacity factor Levelised cost of electricity 50.0% 50.6% 50.3% 48.4% 0.08 44.1% 45.8% 49.2% 43.9% 47.0% 45.5% 1784 1824 1704 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.052 0.043 0.044 0.037 0.039 0.036 0.038 0.055 0.045 1 494 0.047 1236 1 254 1 321 1361 1491 1435 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2019 In the rest of Asia, this figure rose 10%, from USD 1 488/kW to USD 1 630/kW, over the same two periods. Yet, it is not just a question of costs rising within countries/regions, but also of a slowdown in deployment in China, notably in 2019. Given China still has the lowest installed costs, any decline in that country’s share raises the weighted average. Thus, part of the growth in the global weighted average in recent years is due to the fact that in 2019, China accounted for 31% of new hydropower capacity additions, down from 48% in 2010. The full dataset of hydropower projects in the IRENA Renewable Cost Database for the years 2000 to 2019 suggests that the total installed costs of smaller projects spans a wider range than larger projects, but in terms of deployment, the weighted-average installed cost is not materially lower for large projects, except for sizes beyond around 700 MW. At the same time that total installed costs were trending upwards, so too were capacity factors. Between 2010 and 2013, the global weighted- average capacity factor of newly commissioned hydropower projects rose from 44% to 50%, while between 2014 and 2019 it varied between 46% and 51%. In 2019, the global weighted-average capacity factor was 48%, one-tenth higher than in 2010. Hydropower is somewhat unique, in that depending on the site characteristics and the ability to store water behind the dam, a project can take a flexible approach to designing for different capacity factors. So for instance, systems can be designed with relatively high capacities relative to inflows, resulting in lower average capacity factors, but with the ability to generate large volumes when that is most valuable. Alternatively, generation could be more constant and result in higher capacity factors for a smaller electrical capacity. This diversity is evident in the data for the 5th and 95th percentiles of project-level capacity factors, which have ranged from around 23% to 71% for the last four years. In 2019, the global weighted-average LCOE of hydropower was USD 0.047/kWh – 6% higher than in 2018 and 27% higher than in 2010. The increase in LCOE since 2010 is lower than the 38% increase in global weighted-average total installed costs due to the moderating influence of O&M costs, as well as the one-tenth increase in average capacity factors. Despite the increase in global weighted-average LCOE since 2010, hydropower remains a competitive, low-cost source of the electricity, with its global weighted-average LCOE still comfortably below the cheapest fossil fuel-fired source of new electricity generation. Figure 1.8 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for hydropower, 2010-2019 Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database. 34 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 USD/kW Capacity factor 2019 USD/kWhPDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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