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38 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2019 cost of electricity in 2021 from new onshore wind capacity. Some of these plants will be exposed to international market prices, which have fallen since the Carbon Tracker analysis, but this has likely been offset to some extent by the continued decline in the average capacity factors of coal-fired plants, especially the less competitive ones, in this higher-cost sample. This report assumes that by 2021, in line with expectations for a recovery in economic growth, that coal prices return to prices around 10-20% lower than in 2018, but that capacity factors are also lower. The net result is marginal operating cost situation for most coal plants of around the same values as the original analysis (some plants will be slightly higher or lower depending on efficiency and capacity factor values). Notably, the analysis here is based on the global averages for the solar PV and onshore wind costs, while individual countries’ competitive balances will look different and would need to be confirmed by a country-level analysis. The calculations presented here should therefore be treated with caution and considered indicative of the order of magnitude of the opportunity, due to the need to do a more in-depth country-level analysis and the uncertainty surrounding traded coal prices in 2021. This economic opportunity, is indeed significant. Closing the least-competitive 500 GW of coal-fired capacity would save consumers between USD 12 billion and USD 23 billion per year, taking into account USD 0.005/kWh for grid integration costs, the extent to which coal prices recover or not from their 2018 values and how fast capacity factors for coal continue to fall. Over 20 years, this would represent cumulative savings to consumers, worldwide, of USD 244-463 billion. This would reduce coal-fired power generation by around 2170 terawatt hours (TWh), or about 22% of the total 10100 TWh global coal-fired generation in 2018 (BP, 2019). Assuming one-third of this coal-fired generation reduction was made up by building new solar PV and two-thirds by building onshore wind, this would require around 860 GW of new capacity. This may seem like a very large increase in capacity for solar PV and wind. Yet, for solar PV, this would represent less than two years of the average annual additions level to 2030 required for compliance with the Paris Agreement (IRENA, 2020b) and three years of onshore wind’s. Even unlocking a fraction of this economic opportunity could serve to provide an important, clean stimulus, the resulting additional investment represents a total of around USD 1.1 trillion, with USD 274 billion for the utility-scale solar PV capacity and USD 813 billion for the onshore wind capacity. Compared to investment in solar PV and onshore wind in 2019, this would represent a net stimulus of around USD 940 billion. LEARNING CURVES FOR SOLAR AND WIND POWER TECHNOLOGIES The cost declines experienced from 2010 to 2019 and signalled for 2020 to 2023 in the IRENA Auctions and PPA database represent a remarkable rate of change. They also have enormous implications for the competitiveness of renewable power generation technologies over the medium term. In addition, they provide some lessons that might be applicable to the myriad technologies that need to be scaled up over the coming decade, in order to ensure decarbonisation of end-use sectors – from electrolysers to electric vehicles and heat pumps to stationary battery storage. Figure 1.11 shows the global weighted-average LCOE and Auction/PPA price trends for utility-scale solar PV, CSP, onshore and offshore wind from 2010 to 2021 (or 2023, in the case of offshore wind) plotted against deployment. By placing both these variables on a logarithmic scale (log-log), the line on the charts represents the learning rate for these technologies. The learning rate is the average cost reduction experienced for every doubling of cumulative installed capacity. The LCOE learning rate for offshore wind (i.e. the LCOE reduction for every doubling in global cumulative installed capacity) is expected to reach 10% over the period 2010 to 2023, with new capacity additions over this period estimated to be 95% of the cumulative, installed offshore wind capacity that would be deployed out to 2023. For onshore wind, the LCOE learning rate for the period 2010 to 2019 was 23%. Extending the period to 2021 with the data from Auction and PPA data in this report, however, implies a learning rate for the period 2010 to 2021 of 29%.PDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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