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LATEST COST TRENDS Energy subsidies: Evolution in the global energy transformation to 2050 New IRENA estimates suggest that while fossil fuel subsidies have been widely underestimated, renewables subsidies have been overestimated. The new analysis also dispels the myth that the energy transition would entail a massive growth in subsidies. Indeed, the reality is quite the opposite: the energy transition can reduce total subsidies in the energy sector (Taylor, 2020). IRENA estimates that in 2017, the world’s total, direct energy sector subsidies – including those to fossil fuels, renewables and nuclear power – amounted to at least USD 634 billion. Subsidies to fossil fuels accounted for around 70% (USD 447 billion) of this total. Meanwhile, the same year, subsidies for renewable power generation technologies accounted for around 20% of total energy sector subsidies (USD 128 billion), biofuels for about 6% (USD 38 billion) and nuclear for at least 3% (USD 21 billion). Amongst fossil fuels, subsidies for petroleum products dominated the total, at USD 220 billion, followed by electricity-based support for fossil fuels, at USD 128 billion. Subsidies for natural gas and coal in 2017 were estimated at USD 82 billion and USD 17 billion, respectively. Supply-side support for renewables amounted to USD 166 billion in 2017. This broke down into USD 128 billion in support for renewable power generation, while transport sector biofuel support added a further USD 38 billion. The European Union (EU) accounted for around 54% (USD 90 billion) of total estimated renewable subsidies in 2017, the United States 14% (USD 23 billion), Japan 11% (USD 19 billion), China 9% (USD 16 billion), India 2% (USD 4 billion), and the rest of the world slightly less than 9% (USD 15 billion). Subsidies for renewable power generation were dominant in Japan (99%), China (97%), the EU (87%) and India (76%). Subsidies for biofuels dominated in the United States (61%) and the rest of the world (71%). In 2017, globally, solar PV is estimated to have received the largest share of renewable power generation support, at 48%, or USD 60.8 billion. The next largest recipient was onshore wind, which received USD 31.6 billion (25%), followed by biomass, with USD 21.9 billion (17%), while offshore wind received USD 6.6 billion (5%). In the REmap Case consistent with a pathway to meet the Paris Agreement goals (IRENA, 2020b), between 2017 and 2050, total energy subsidies decline from 0.8% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 0.2%. Total energy sector subsidies in the REmap scenario could decline from USD 634 billion in 2017 to USD 475 billion per year in 2050, which would be around 25% lower than in 2017 and 45% (USD 390 billion) lower than they would be based on current plans and policies. This development is a net result of falling fossil fuel subsidies and rising efficiency and renewables subsidies. In the REmap Case, support for renewables is expected to increase from USD 166 billion/year in 2017 to USD 192 billion/year in 2030 and USD 209 billion/year in 2050. However, with falling costs, support for renewable power generation falls to USD 53 billion in 2030 – a 60% decline between 2017 and 2030 - and to just USD 5 billion in 2050. At the same time, a broader definition of subsidies reveals a staggering gap: in 2017, the costs of unpriced externalities and direct subsidies for fossil fuels (USD 3.1 trillion) exceeded subsidies for renewable energy by a factor of 19. In conclusion, an accelerated energy transition will reduce energy subsidy needs in the long term and can yield benefits that substantially exceed costs. Governments should use this knowledge in their design of future stimulus packages. Box 1.1 45PDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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