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RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2019 For the period 2018-2019, O&M cost estimates for utility-scale plants in the United States have been reported at between USD 10/kW and USD 18/kW per year (Bolinger et al., 2019; EIA, 2020; NREL, 2018). If a central estimate of USD 14/kW is assumed, utility-scale O&M costs in the United States have halved since 2011. Recent costs there seem to be dominated by preventive maintenance and module cleaning, with these making up as much as 75% and 90% of the total, depending on the system type and configuration. The rest of the O&M costs can be attributed to unscheduled maintenance, land lease costs and other component replacement costs. Average utility-scale O&M costs in Europe have been recently reported at USD 10/kW per year, with historical data for Germany suggesting O&M costs came down 85% between 2005 and 2017, to USD 9/kW per year. This result suggests there has been a reduction of between 15.7% and 18.2% with every doubling of the solar PV cumulative installed capacity (Steffen et al., 2020; Vartiainen et al., 2019). For 2019, the solar PV LCOE calculations in this report assume utility-scale O&M costs of USD 18.3/kW per year for projects commissioned in the OECD. For projects commissioned in non- OECD countries during that year, USD 9.5/kW per year is assumed.20 These are the estimated total “all-in” O&M costs, so include costs such as insurance and asset management costs that are sometimes not reported in all O&M surveys. LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY The rapid decline in total installed costs, increasing capacity factors and falling O&M costs, have contributed to the remarkable reduction in the cost of electricity from solar PV and the improvement of its economic competitiveness. The global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale PV plants declined by 82% between 2010 and 2019, from around USD 0.378/kWh to just USD 0.068/kWh. This 2019 estimate also represents a 13% year-on-year decline from 2018. Globally, too, the range of LCOE costs continues to narrow. 20 See Annex I for a more details on O&M costs assumptions. The 5th and 95th percentile of projects in 2019 ranged from USD 0.052/kWh to USD 0.190/kWh. Which is a 72% and 63% decline in the 5th and 95th percentile values, respectively, compared with 2010. The 5th percentile value remained flat between 2018 and 2019, while the 95th percentile value declined 12%, during that period (Figure 3.6). The downward trend in the LCOE of utility-scale solar PV by country is presented in Figure 3.7. Analysis of the markets where historical data is available back to 2010, shows that between 2010 and 2019, the weighted-average LCOE of utility- scale solar PV declined by between 66% and 85%, depending on the country. The largest reduction in the utility-scale sector could be seen in India, where between 2010 and 2019, costs declined by 85%, to reach USD 0.045/kWh – a value 34% lower than the global weighted average for that year as reported in Figure 3.6. After India, China and Spain achieved the most competitive LCOEs, with values of USD 0.054/kWh and USD 0.056/kWh respectively for 2019 (a fifth and a quarter higher than in India). The LCOE of utility-scale PV in both the United States and Italy was USD 0.068/kWh, with a 14% year-on-year reduction between 2018 and 2019 in the former and a 5% reduction in the latter. In the United States, a market where BoS costs have remained stubbornly high in the past, this LCOE reduction was likely driven by BoS costs there falling by about a quarter during that period, showing a reversing trend in this respect. Elsewhere, the LCOE of utility-scale PV in Japan was about two times higher than in India, given the LCOE in Japan declined only 4% (the lowest among markets evaluated). This was after the large-scale segment in Japan had shown little participation in recent solar auctions. As discussed in Chapter 1, for OECD countries at least, the recent auction and tender results tend to suggest that the WACC assumptions used by IRENA (7.5% real, before tax) have started to diverge from what the average project can achieve. The LCOE values for countries with low interest rates in recent years, should therefore be 70PDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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