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2010 2019 5th percentile Weighted average 95th percentile 5th percentile Weighted average 95th percentile (2019 USD/kW) Asia 2 646 4 464 4 801 2 842 3 014 3 704 China 2 646 4 424 4 782 2 842 3 012 3 059 Japan 4 877 4 877 4 877 4 900 4 900 4 900 Europe 3 265 4 658 6 179 2 928 4 094 5 992 Belgium 6 041 6 041 6 041 3 907 3 907 3 907 Denmark 3 265 3 265 3 265 2 928 2 928 2 928 Germany 6 428 6 428 6 428 3 352 4 077 5 958 United Kingdom 3 975 4 534 4 782 3 583 4 580 5 677 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2019 Some of the contributing factors to cost increase, such as supply chain bottlenecks for turbines and cables and logistics issues, were transient (Green, R., 2011; Anzinger, N.,2015). Consequently, the weighted-average total installed costs have since followed a downward cost reduction trend, falling by around a third from their peak in 2013 to a global weighted-average of USD 3800/kW for projects commissioned in 2019. Major support came from lower commodity prices; lower risks from stable government policies and support schemes; improved turbine designs; standardisation of design and industrialised manufacturing; improvements in logistics – especiallywith specialised installation vessels and larger turbines for offshore wind; and economies of scale from clustered projects in Europe. Yet, due to the relatively thin market compared to onshore wind and solar PV, the global weighted-average total installed cost by year remains volatile. The yearly volatility in total installed costs is due to site-specific nature of offshore wind projects and the differences in market maturity and the scale of local or regional supply chain. As deployment in each year is distributed slightly differently across markets this can drive yearly volatility. For instance, total installed costs observed in China are lower than in Europe due to lower commodity prices and labour costs, but also because most Chinese deployments so far are in shallow waters, nearshore. But there are drivers for differences in total installed costs by country. The most notable is who is responsible for the wind farm-to-shore transmission assets. In some countries the transmission assets are owned by the national or regional transmission network, in some cases they are owned by the wind farm developer. Looking at the total installed cost trends by country is therefore important to understand how cost structures are evolving. Germany, which has the second largest cumulative wind deployment globally (roughly 7.5 GW), experienced a decline in weighted-average total installed cost between 2010 and 2019 of 37% – from USD 6428/kW to USD 4 077/kW (Table 4.1). In Denmark and China, the grid connection assets are developed and owned by public entities or the transmission network owner, lowering the project-specific installed costs. As a result, the project-specific weighted-average total installed costs in 2019 were USD 2 928/kW in Denmark and USD 3012/kW in China. There was up to a 1% increase in the weighed-average total installed costs in the UK and Japan. In the UK, the higher total installed costs could be attributed to, among other factors, the fact that the projects deployed in 2019 have the highest weighted- average distance to shore and water depths of 113 km and 43m, which is 87% and 35% respectively, above the average distance from shore (60 km) and water depth (32m) in 2019. In Japan, the market remains in the pre-commercial deployment phase. Table 4.1 Regional and country weighted-average total installed costs and ranges for offshore wind, 2010 and 2019 Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database. 80PDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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