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104 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2019 INTRODUCTION Geothermal resources are found in active geothermal areas on or near the surface of the Earth’s crust, as well as at deeper depths. By drilling into the earth’s surface, this naturally occurring steam or hot water can be used to generate electricity in steam turbines. As a result, geothermal power generation is very different in nature to the other renewable power generation technologies. Sub-surface resource assessments are expensive to conduct and need to be confirmed by test wells that will allow developers to build models of the reservoir’s extent and flows. Much, however, remains unknown about how the reservoir will perform and how best to manage it over the operational life of the project. This means geothermal projects have very different risk profiles compared to other renewable power generation technologies in both project development and operation. Geothermal resources consist of thermal energy, stored as heat in the rocks of the Earth’s crust and interior. At shallow depths, fissures to deeper depths in areas saturated with water will produce hot water and/or steam that can be tapped for electricity generation with relatively low cost. Where this is not the case, geothermal energy can still be extracted, by drilling to deeper depths and injecting water into the hot area through wells to harness the heat found in otherwise dry rocks. At the end of 2019, geothermal deployment accounted for 0.5% of the total installed capacity of renewable energy, worldwide, with a total installed capacity of 13.9 GW. This was mostly deployed in active geothermal areas and cumulative installed capacity at the end of 2019 was 39% higher than in 2010. Geothermal is a mature and commercially available technology that can provide low-cost “always-on” capacity in geographies with very good to excellent high-temperature conventional geothermal resources, close to the Earth’s surface. The development of unconventional geothermal resources, however, using the so called “enhanced geothermal” or “hot dry rocks” approach, is much less mature. In this instance, projects come with costs that are typically significantly higher, due to the deep drilling required, rendering the economics of such initiatives much less attractive today. Research and development into more innovative, low-cost drilling techniques and advanced reservoir stimulation methodologies is needed in order to lower development costs and realize the full potential of enhanced geothermal resources, by making them more economically viable. One of the most important challenges faced when developing geothermal power generation projects lies in the availability of comprehensive geothermal resource mapping. Where it is available, this reduces the uncertainties that developers face during the exploration period, potentially reducing the development cost. This is because poorer than expected results during the exploration phase might require additional drilling, or wells may need to be deployed over a much larger area to generate the expected electricity. Resource mapping is, however, an expensive and time-consuming process. Globally, around 78% of production wells drilled are successful, with the average success rate improving in recent decades. This is most likely due to better surveying technology, which is able to more accurately target the best prospects for siting productive wells – although greater experience in each region has also played a part. A key point is that adherence to global best practices significantly reduces exploration risks (IFC, 2013). In addition, geothermal plants are very individual in terms of the quality of their resources and management needs. As a result, experience with one project may not yield specific lessons that can be applied to new developments. Nonetheless, adherence to best international practices for survey and management and thorough data analysis from the project site are the best risk mitigation tools available to developers (IFC, 2013). Once commissioned, the management of a geothermal plant and its reservoir evolves over time. Intervention in the reservoir creates a dynamic situation, with more information becoming available from operational experience, operators’ understanding of how to best manage the reservoir will be constantly evolving over time. Once productivity at existing wells declines, there might also be a need for replacement wells to make up for the loss in productivity.PDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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