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include only BEVs. Appendix G describes various factors that may impact on future EV sales projections. Based on the research conducted for this study, conclusions on future EV sales projections are listed below: • It is considered realistic to use a projection of new EV sales scenarios to 2025 (6 years from now). Despite the fact that many organizations offer projections beyond 2025, estimating sales beyond this year is not considered reliable, as many factors affecting EV sales are changing rapidly, both in the US market and globally, some of which are unpredictable at this time; • EVs are still more expensive than ICE vehicles. Sales and adoption r a t e s will likely increase and the technology will “diffuse” more broadly when price parity with ICE vehicles as well as a comfort level with the technology (which usually occurs when friends and family have already used a technology) occur. Price parity of EVs with ICE equivalent models is projected to occur when the cost of EV batteries reaches $ 8 0 / k W h t o $100/kWh. Various sources predict that this will occur anywhere from 2020 to 2025. • There will always be certain situations where ICE vehicles will be preferred to EVs, particularly in northern parts of the US with colder winters, and with consumers who prefer to service their own vehicles. • It is reasonable to assume that up to 8% of new vehicles sold in the US by 2025 will be either PHEVs or BEVs. Based on annual sales of about 17.2 million light duty vehicles, this translates to total sales of BEVs and PHEVs of 1.3 million. This value was projected by US EIA and is close tovaluespredicted byEdisonInstituteandIHSMarkit. • The US EIA projections show hybrids increasing in the US market and levelling off to sales of about 1 million units per year (from the current level of about 327,000 units in 2018). HEVs are likely to continue to be popular as they offer some fuel efficiency but provide a full ICE. However, as the price of batteries falls, PHEVs will offer the advantage of being electric but with the same back-up ICE option, therefore HEVs may not gain further sales. • These projections should be updated annually based on new data sources available to remain current. The next update should be carried out in August, 2020. 3.3 Estimated Amounts of End-of-Life EV Batteries Projected for the US EV batteries generally have a lifespan of 8 years or 100,000 miles (or more), and EV manufacturers typically offer battery warranties that cover at least this service life. In practice, however, it appears that EV batteries can last much longer than originally predicted.16 While a small number of EV batteries reach EOL sooner than 8 years as a result of battery failure or vehicle collisions, these are estimated at about 1% to 3% of the EV stock based on discussions with industry representatives. Generally, reasons for EV battery failure include manufacturing defects from extrusion problems, heat stress, faulty charging, 16 Personal communication with Panasonic staff KELLEHER RESEARCH STUDY ON REUSE AND RECYCLING OF BATTERIES EMPLOYED IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES FINAL REPORT SEPTEMBER, 2019 PAGE 7PDF Image | Reuse and Recycling of Batteries Employed in Electric Vehicles
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