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3.0 Mechanism Methodology and Summaries Nine mechanisms, as shown in Table 3.1, by which a smart grid can help reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions are described in this report. Two types of impacts are analyzed: 1) direct reductions, in which smart grid functions produce savings in energy and/or emissions consumed at the end-use or by reducing generation requirements, and 2) indirect reductions in which smart grid functions produce cost savings, which are subsequently reinvested in energy efficiency and/or renewable resources. As discussed earlier, no attempt has been made to quantify impacts on consumer electric bills, utility revenue requirements, or other economic considerations that are considered the fundamental benefits of a smart grid. Indirect mechanisms do not result in energy and emission savings in and of themselves. Rather, they reduce capital and/or operational costs that can then be reinvested in the deployment of energy efficiency programs or of renewables to provide reductions. To estimate the potential value of indirect reductions and place them in context with the direct reduction estimates, we estimate the savings that would ensue from reinvesting the cost savings in the purchase of additional cost-effective energy efficiency at an average electricity cost of 8.8¢/kWh. In effect, this represents a policy decision to reinvest the savings in the purchase of additional efficiency and renewable resources. An alternative policy decision is to “pocket” these capital and operational cost savings, in effect using them to reduce the societal cost of obtaining reductions from energy efficiency and renewables that would have been purchased anyway. One view of the consequences of such policy is that no indirect benefits would be realized. Another view is that additional deployment of such resources would naturally occur because they are effectively cheaper, and the potential indirect reductions are a way to estimate this effect. Hence, the potential value of indirect reductions is subjective and left to the reader. Table 3.2 provides an overview of the estimated potential of a smart grid to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions from the nine mechanisms examined. Each mechanism was assigned to a subject matter expert, who conducted a review of the applicable literature. The potential impacts are primarily based on the results found in the literature and the judgment of the authors regarding key assumptions, as documented in Attachments 1 and 2. Table 3.2 first lists the potential direct reductions, and then the potential indirect reductions, for each mechanism. The second column is the estimated potential to reduce the annual electricity supply in 2030 for a specific subsector of the United States (columns five and six). The third and fourth columns provide low and high ranges for the estimate. The fuel consumption of light-duty vehicles (LDVs) (for Mechanism F) has been converted to its electricity equivalent so it can be viewed on an equivalent basis with the other mechanisms. No rigorous attempt has been made to analyze the uncertainty associated with each mechanism, because the methodology used is not tailored to provide such specific estimates. Instead, likely ranges of uncertainty are provided based on the judgment of the authors, in light of the range of results found in the literature and uncertainties in key assumptions. 3.1PDF Image | The Smart Grid: An Estimation of the Energy and CO2 Benefits
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