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It is striking to note that nearly one half the CO2 reductions, mostly from efficiency measures, could be achieved at negative cost. That is, the energy savings alone more than pay for the cost of the efficiency measure over its lifetime. This illustrates one of the key barriers: energy efficiency investments, largely left to the consumer, lags considerably below those that are cost effective. In economic terms, consumers apparently discount efficiency investments or, equivalently, have very short payback requirements. If carbon capture and sequestration from coal-fired power plants becomes a viable option in the future, it has been suggested that it may cost approximately $50/ton CO2. Assuming there is no shortage and ready access to sequestration sites, this may become the “limiting option” and effectively places a cap on carbon prices. This translates to a doubling of wholesale power costs from coal (currently approximately 5¢/kWh), which would render all the carbon reduction measures in Figure 3.1 to the left of carbon sequestration (the shaded “bars”) as cost effective. This suggests that massive energy efficiency and renewables programs are likely in the future, at a scale beyond what was generally imagined just a few years ago. Utilities have both the motive and the means to deploy energy efficiency on a massive scale, because they have good access to capital at more attractive rates than consumers, and are in the business of making large infrastructure investments that earn steady, but modest long-term rates of return. That they can gain carbon credits and meet RPS requirements through energy efficiency investments further increases their motivation. Properly incentivized, accelerated deployment of utility-funded energy efficiency programs could have a major role in reducing CO2 emissions. It is against this backdrop that we examine the role of a smart grid. Although none of the cost- effective carbon reductions from improved energy efficiency in Figure 3.1 explicitly require a smart grid, a smart grid may facilitate deployment of efficiency measures. This is particularly true for some of those in the middle and second half of the curve that are marginally cost effective today or will require a price on carbon to become cost effective. Several of these are the subject of subsequent discussions of the mechanisms in this report. The following subsections summarize the mechanisms that relate to energy efficiency. 3.1.1 Conservation Effect of Consumer Information and Feedback Systems Many demand response projects have reported some customer energy savings, typically a few percentage points, in addition to their primary objective of reducing peak loads. While some energy savings can be attributed to physical effects of reducing load during peak load times, the primary basis for the savings is likely to be the effect of feedback provided to consumers on their usage patterns as part of these programs. This mechanism is summarized here, with detail on the literature review and conclusions provided in Attachment 1. It is worth noting that demand response is fundamentally a curtailment behavior, and so has more in common with energy conservation than energy efficiency. Although sometimes used to indicate both, energy efficiency more properly describes obtaining the same service or amenity from a device for less energy input (i.e., a more efficient lighting source or air conditioner), whereas energy conservation means doing without the device’s service or amenity. In this respect demand response and conservation are similar, although they occur over different time scales. Demand response for managing peak loads involves, at most, 100 or so hours a year, and seldom more than a few consecutive hours. Demand 3.7PDF Image | The Smart Grid: An Estimation of the Energy and CO2 Benefits
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