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Using this estimate, if the savings were reinvested to obtain further cost-effective energy efficiency at an average cost of 8.8¢/kWh, potentially 0.5% of the electric sector energy and associated CO2 emissions could be achieved as indirect reductions, as indicated in Table 3.6. This relatively modest savings assumes that these M&V approaches apply only to the residential and small/medium commercial building sectors (less than 50,000 ft2 in floor area). It also assumes that energy efficiency programs are operated to achieve a 10% overall improvement in energy efficiency for these customer segments. Larger buildings and industrial customers are assumed to warrant more sophisticated and specially designed M&V approaches, and no attribution of savings from the programs is included in this estimate. Table 3.6. Estimated Indirect Impacts of Measurement & Verification for Energy Efficiency Programs Leveraging a Smart Grid Avoided Expenditure Reinvested to Save Carbon (2030) Baseline Captial Expenditure Electric Sector Annual Reductions (2030) Energy Carbon Emissions Est. % Low High % % Savings (109 $) 1.5 0.8 % of United States 0.5 9 year) % of United States 0.5 (MMT/ year) 15 Investment 10% Energy Efficiency, Residential @ 8.8¢/kWh,10-Year Life 10% Energy Efficiency, Small/Medium Commercial Buildings @ 8.8¢/kWh,10-Year Life (109 $) 152 75 (10 kWh/ 26 102 102 There is obviously considerable uncertainty about whether these cost savings are achievable. We acknowledge this by indicting a range of potential cost savings that includes zero. Pending further research to better quantify the savings potential, and the cost of developing automated methodologies, the reader is left to accept or reject the assertions made regarding this mechanism. We also estimate the direct impact for the additional energy efficiency that can be deployed as a result of the improved quality of M&V. This stems from the methodological advantages that approaches based on smart grid have over stipulation methods and methods based on analysis of monthly bills, which are otherwise assumed to remain viable and common approaches to M&V. Among other advantages, this allows the separation of the effects of physical thermal performance of a building and equipment from the behavior-driven effects of appliance and equipment loads and thermostat settings. This separation provides deep insight into how and why savings occur for any given technology, and provides an engineering basis for estimating savings in new construction, whereas prior baseline performance does not. Quality also stems from the ability to ensure persistence of savings for new energy efficiency technologies with considerable potential, like heat pump water heaters, whose long-term performance is uncertain, which limits its penetration. These are usually actively controlled technologies that can fail in modes that reduce savings but shield the user from impacts of lost amenity, as opposed to passive technologies integral to building envelopes, for example. This benefit of ensuring persistence is beyond that which short-term metering can provide. These effects are extraordinarily difficult to estimate. The additional reductions in electricity and CO2 emissions resulting from the deployment of additional, marginally cost-effective energy efficiency technologies calculated in Attachment 2 are based on EPRI’s estimate of 7% (EPRI 2009), other 3.21PDF Image | The Smart Grid: An Estimation of the Energy and CO2 Benefits
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