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1700 megawatts. The drop in output had been forecast, but occurred several hours earlier than expected, so power plants had not been scheduled for dispatch to provide the replacement energy and the ramping services to manage the transition. Some generation capacity is always held back but kept “hot” to handle a sudden contingency (spinning reserves), but this event exceeded the capacity of the spinning reserves and fast-acting non-spinning reserves to pick up the deficit in output. In addition, February is in the off- peak-load season in Texas when many power plants were down for scheduled maintenance. As a result of this deficit, grid frequency dropped quickly, and emergency curtailment contracts, mostly with large industrial customers, were called upon to drop load to prevent a potential blackout until additional power plants could be brought online. These kinds of events are driven largely by errors in forecasts of renewable energy. They are a combination of probabilistic events, well described by the analogy to a “perfect storm,” that power grid operators must plan to handle with little warning. In today’s power grid with little renewable generation, contingency events are not infrequent, and the rules for good practice regarding how much capacity to have for regulation, spinning and non-spinning reserves, and emergency replacement energy (re-dispatch) have been well defined after decades of experience. Because these events are probabilistic, the quantity of services needed, which may be negligible initially, tends to accelerate as renewable resource penetration increases. How much additional capacity is needed for these services, and how this quantity changes with the percentage of generation supplied by renewables, is the subject of considerable research. Most research conducted to date is focused on wind power, because it is penetrating much faster than solar power systems at present. A smart grid’s demand response and distributed generation and storage assets can provide these services, easing operational stresses, and manage the increasing penetration of intermittent renewable resources. To the extent that these assets (demand response, distributed generation, and distributed storage) can replace power plants in providing these services, extra plant capacity will not need to be constructed, and less fuel will be consumed. In Section 3.2.2, we estimate the direct impacts from the potential savings in fuel for the additional regulation services required by a 20% RPS requirement met by wind power, by providing the extra regulation with a smart grid’s demand response and/or distributed storage resources. We also estimate the indirect impacts of saving capital investment in power plant capacity for providing the extra spinning reserves needed. We do not provide a separate estimate for meeting a 20% RPS requirement with solar power generation for two reasons: wind power is expected to provide most of the needed additional RPS requirement, and research on the ancillary services required to meet an RPS requirement entirely or partially is relatively immature. To a first order, we assume the requirements are similar, and therefore the estimates in Section 3.2.2 for wind power also apply to a system with a mixture of wind and solar.1 Other smart-grid-enabled mechanisms for assisting the penetration of renewable generation, such as wide-area control and dynamic thermal rating schemes for transmission systems, are not analyzed in this report. Both of these could potentially increase the throughput capacity of existing transmission lines, and thereby reduce needs to construct transmission capacity in order to move renewable power long 1 This neglects the generally beneficial effects of resource diversity, which is what a combination of wind and solar sources would provide. 3.30PDF Image | The Smart Grid: An Estimation of the Energy and CO2 Benefits
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