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Assessments found in the literature vary in scope. The scope can be as narrowly defined as only addressing the impacts of PHEVs for a single state or utility service territory. Letendre investigated the impacts of PHEVs for the state of Vermont (Letendre and Watts 2008). Parks studied the impacts of PHEVs on XCEL Energy’s service territory in Colorado (Parks et al. 2007). Significant work has been done for California (Cheng et al. 2008; Papavasiliou et al. 2008; Farrell et al. 2007), primarily driven by the Alternative Fuels Plan legislated by Assembly Bill 1007 (Olson et al. 2007; California State Assembly Bill 1007 2005). Most analyses discuss the impacts from a U.S. national perspective (EPRI/NDRC 2007; Hadley and Tsvetkova 2008; Voelcker 2009; Lilenthal and Brown 2007; Markel et al. 2006; Farrell et al. 2007; Kintner-Meyer et al. 2007; Shiau et al. 2009; Wise et al. 2009; EPA 2008; Draper et al. 2008). The literature on international studies is much sparser. Canada and Japan have performed impact assessments particularly focusing on oil-displacement opportunities (Brandon et al. 2008; Hori 2007). The more comprehensive study was performed for Germany. The impacts of 1 and 20 M EVs on the German grid for the 2020 and 2030 timeframe were investigated. The study concluded that electrification of transportation has a clear petroleum displacement potential; however, the CO2 emission reduction potential, given the strong contribution by coal to the German generation mix, remains marginal. Only if additional “green” generation technologies are brought online could the transportation electrification achieve major CO2 reduction (Horst, 2009). The majority of the U.S. studies used performance characteristics of PHEVs were compiled from a set of workshops conducted by EPRI in the early 2000s (Duvall 2002, 2003, 2004). Data from real-world performance of PHEVs in operation on the road are currently being collected and compiled by the Idaho National Laboratory. The key national studies are the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) technical potential assessment of PHEVs based on today’s grid (Kintner-Meyer et al. 2007), the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) study assessing the impacts on a 2030 projection (Hadley and Tsvetkova 2008), and ERPI/NDRC’s (2007) comprehensive study projecting vehicles’ penetrations out to 2050: • The PNNL study indicated carbon reduction potential of 27% for the nation as a whole with every conventional gasoline vehicle with average fleet fuel economy of 20.7 mpg replaced by a PHEV operating in electricity mode only. For the worst-case condition, a coal-rich region, such as the Mid- Continent Area Power Pool, in which the marginal generation for charging PHEVs comes almost entirely from coal resources, the well-to-wheel1 CO2 emissions are approximately equal to that of conventional vehicles. • The ORNL study compared PHEVs against a modern hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) for two future grid scenarios (2020 and 2030). ORNL indicated that the CO2 emission benefits were mixed and dependent upon the power level (120V versus 240V) and the timing and duration that the PHEVs are charged. Based on assumptions, including the time of charging, there could be a net benefit or a loss. The study indicated that from a CO2 emissions perspective charging in the evening could result in a slight net benefit while charging at night would result in a net increase in CO2 emission from PHEVs compared to HEVs. 1 Well-to-wheel emissions are the total emissions associated with the extraction of the primary energy (coal, oil, natural gas, etc.) resource, its transportation, as well as all conversions to usable energy products, including the final conversion into useful end-use energy. The final end-use product in this case is vehicle miles traveled (VMTs). F.2PDF Image | The Smart Grid: An Estimation of the Energy and CO2 Benefits
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