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approximately 20% of the 34 quads of primary fossil energy consumed by the utility sector. In conjunction, there will be a decrease in CO2 emissions. At average CO2 emissions of 2.6 MMT/GW, this translates to approximately 416 MMT or approximately 14% of total utility CO2 emissions. A refinement to this first-order estimate would develop an estimate of the CO2 emission of the fossil-fueled capacity displaced, rather than the average for the electricity sector. The additional reductions in electricity and CO2 emissions attributable to implementation of smart grid technologies that are calculated in Attachment 2 are based on the literature review and the author’s experience. In the case of the direct reduction, it is estimated that an additional 0.1% of regulation is needed for peak load periods to meet the 20% RPS and that the energy and carbon reductions are 20% of this peak load, with a range of 10% to 30%. The estimate of indirect reductions is based on the reduced need for the 2% increase in operating margin, with a range of 1% to 3%. The reader is reminded that these are first-order estimates. I.4 Recommendation Work to date indicates that the grid can accommodate 20% to 25% penetration of wind power at minimal cost for the additional capacity needed to provide ancillary services, but the work to date leaves three questions unanswered: • Is there an asymptotic limit to the penetration of wind? In other words, what is the limit that wind penetration is maximized–100% of load with no ancillary services, 80% of load with 20% served by ancillary services, or something closer to an RPS of 25%? • Coupled with the above question, how is the asymptotic limit affected by geographic size and load diversity? • An addition need is to quantify the contribution that storage and demand response enabled by smart grid technologies that can serve as a substitute for the fossil-fueled capacity used to provide ancillary services? The smart-grid-enabled regulation then offsets the need for reserve generating resources or curtailments, thus easing operational stresses and reducing the cost of managing high penetration of intermittent wind resources. Additional work needs to provide answers to these three questions, and there is a need to examine the penetrations of wind and solar PV in conjunction with exploration of ranges in the size of geographic size, load diversity, storage, and demand response to provide guidelines for implementation efforts by utilities. I.5 References California Independent System Operator Corporation (CAISO). 2007. Integration of Renewable Resources; Transmission and Operating Issues and Recommendations for Integrating Renewable Resources on the California ISO-Controlled Grid. California Independent System Operator Corporation, Folsom, California. California Independent System Operator Corporation (CAISO). 2009. Participation of Limited Energy Storage Resources in CAISO Electricity Markets. California Independent System Operator Corporation, Folsom, California. I.4PDF Image | The Smart Grid: An Estimation of the Energy and CO2 Benefits
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