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Bitcoin Mining The Evolution of A Multibillion Dollar Industry Yassine Elmandjra, and Derek Hsue, 100,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 100,000,000 10,000,000 1,000,000 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 10 1 2010 Hardware Evolution vs. Miner Difficulty Figure 4: Hardware Evolution vs. Miner Difficulty 10 nm 7 nm 20 nm 22 nm 28 nm 16 nm Miner Difficulty FPGA GPU CPU 130 nm 110 nm 55 nm 65 nm 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2020; Alliance Bernsetin Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), Samsung, and Intel are the only foundries11 today working on cutting-edge semiconductor nodes.12 Only TSMC and Samsung, however, are relevant to Bitcoin mining, suggesting that innovation in the space is somewhat hostage to a duopoly. Because these foundries allocate capacity that is scarce at the high-end and because miner efficiency is a function of process nodes, the relationship between mining equipment manufacturers and foundries is crucial to their success.13 Moreover, the switching costs from one foundry to another appear exceptionally high, as their production processes are finely tuned and vary. Switching is rare because the cost often includes the complete redesign of an ASIC.14 We believe that as the capital necessary to fabricate leading edge nodes mounts, the likelihood of new competitors entering the space will diminish. As hash power decentralizes, chip fabrication will likely remain concentrated. 11 “Semiconductor Device Fabrication.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 20 Feb. 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_device_ fabrication. 12 This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only. 13 Other supplier relationships and components may be multi-sourced and easily replaced, such as the controller functions or component suppliers providing MOSFET power transistors. TSMC is the world’s largest foundry and captures greater than 50% of the world’s market share. At the advanced nodes, we believe they unequivocally lead the charge and consistently outperform industry averages. Bitmain, for instance, uses TSMC’s 12, 16, and 28 nm process nodes and has announced its transition to 7nm for their next nodes. 14 Theoretically, a miner manufacturer could become dissatisfied over time and engage with another foundry for future nodes, but we believe even that is unlikely. Engagements with foundry partners are likely to last at least a few years, with engagement on a single node basis lasting 12 - 18 months. 8PDF Image | Bitcoin Mining
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