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Bitcoin Mining The Evolution of A Multibillion Dollar Industry Yassine Elmandjra, and Derek Hsue, The Rise of ASIC Commoditization Over the last 5 years, Bitcoin ASIC replacement cycles have lengthened significantly. In the early days, they were short, with designs obsolete within months.15 In November 2013, the largest mining machine manufacturer, Bitmain, shipped its first batch of 55 nm Bitmain S1s running at 2,000 Watts/Terahash (W/TH). The following summer, it released16 its 28 nm S3 which, at 773.8 W/TH, was nearly 3 times more efficient than its predecessor. Now that the Bitcoin ASIC design space has caught up to Moore’s Law,17 however, the design cycle has slowed down significantly. As shown in Figure 5, Bitmain has labored to advance its Antminer at the same rate as in the past. Figure 5: Antminer Equipment Release Dates 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Aug-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 May-16 Nov-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jul-18 Feb-19 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S7 S9 S15 Apr14 Jul14 Sep14 Dec14 Aug15 May16 Oct18 Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2020; Data Sourced from bitmain.com In the past, Bitmain could iterate rapidly because mining was behind the latest node technology curve. In 2015, its S7 was the cutting edge ASIC mining chip at 28 nm technology, for example, but Intel had been shipping more advanced 14 nm nodes to consumers in 2014.18 During the next few years, Bitmain’s design cycles continued to lengthen primarily because of bottlenecks at the foundry level and management turnover at the ASIC design level.19 We believe that competition from other mining hardware manufacturers also has increased dramatically. Two years ago, 15 Taylor, Michael Bedford. The Evolution of Bitcoin Hardware. THE IEEE COMPUTER SOCIETY, 2017, cseweb.ucsd.edu/~mbtaylor/papers/Taylor_ Bitcoin_IEEE_Computer_2017.pdf. 16 Hajdarbegovic, Nermin. “Bitmain Releases Energy Efficient 478GH/s AntMiner S3.” CoinDesk, CoinDesk, 30 June 2014, www.coindesk.com/ bitmain-releases-energy-efficient-478ghs-antminer-s3. 17 Moore’s Law: Gordon Moore’s prediction that the number of transistors on a chip would double every two years. 18 “14 Nm Process.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 1 Feb. 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14_nm_process. 19 Bitmain becoming the leading miner manufacturer from 2013-2017 and struggling thereafter exemplifies the importance of the ASIC design team to a manufacturer’s success. Bitmain’s dominance evolved in large part due to the quality of the Antminer S7 and S9 machines. The performance of the S9, driven by its efficient design, allowed Bitmain to rapidly gain market share and become the largest manufacturer. Three years after release, the S9 is still one of the most popular Bitcoin miners until very recently. Upon designing the S9, Yang Zuoxing, a former director responsible for the Antminer designs, left Bitmain to start a competing manufacturer - Bitewei. With Yang at the helm, Bitewei released the Whatsminer M10, a mining rig considerably more efficient than the S9. During this same time, Bitmain was rumored to have struggled with its 10nm and 7nm designs, in part due to the departure of Yang. 9 Watts/GHPDF Image | Bitcoin Mining
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