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NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22256-3 ARTICLE Fig. 1 Mining pool distributions of Bitcoin blockchain. As of April 2020, China accounts for more than 75% of Bitcoin blockchain operation around the world. Some rural areas in China are considered as the ideal destination for Bitcoin mining mainly due to the cheaper electricity price and large undeveloped land for pool construction. The mining pool statistics is obtained from https://btc.com/stats. Table 1 Scenario parameter settings. Scenarios Measures Market access (%) Miner site selection (%) Carbon tax Benchmark (BM) Market access (MA) Site regulation (SR) Carbon tax (CT) Baseline policy intervention 100 40 2 Raise the market access standards for Bitcoin miner 50 40 2 efficiency Strict regulation on Bitcoin industry in the coal-based 100 20 2 energy region Extra punitive carbon tax on Bitcoin mining 100 40 4 Note: Exogenous auxiliary parameters are introduced to assess the carbon emission flows under different Bitcoin policy measures. In terms of variable settings, three main parameters are chosen as the scenario factors in the proposed BBCE model, including market access (MA), miner site regulation (SR), and carbon tax (CT). countries, especially for China. Due to the proximity to manufacturers of specialized hardware and access to cheap electricity, majority of the mining process has been conducted in China as miners in the country account for more than 75% of the Bitcoin network’s hashing power, as shown in Fig. 1. As one of the largest energy consuming countries on the planet, China is a key signatory of the Paris Agreement18–20. However, without appropriate interventions and feasible policies, the intensive Bitcoin blockchain operation in China can quickly grow as a threat that could potentially undermine the emission reduction effort taken place in the country10. Suggested by the previous work21 and the subsystems of our proposed BBCE model, we consider three main Bitcoin policies conducted at different stages of the Bitcoin mining industry, which then formulates the four scenario assessments for Bitcoin blockchain carbon emission flows (in Table 1). In detail, Benchmark (BM) scenario is a baseline and current scenario of each policy factor, which suggests that the Bitcoin industry continues to operate under minimal policy intervention. In the Benchmark scenario, market access is assumed to be 100%, which indicates that profitable Bitcoin miners of all efficiencies are allowed to operate in China. As suggested by the actual regional statistics of Bitcoin miners, we assume 40% of miners are located in the coal-based area in the Benchmark scenario. Moreover, the punitive carbon tax will be imposed if the carbon emission per GDP of the Bitcoin industry is greater than 2. In the other three scenarios, policies on different Bitcoin mining procedures are adjusted due to energy saving and emission reduction concerns. Specifically, in the Bitcoin mining and transaction subsystem, market access standard for efficiency is doubled, i.e., profitable miners with low efficiency are forbidden to enter the Chinese Bitcoin market in the market access (MA) scenario, and policy makers are forced to maintain the network stability of Bitcoin blockchain in an efficient manner. In the site regulation (SR) scenario, Bitcoin miners in the coal-based area are persuaded and suggested to relocate to the hydro-rich area to take advantage of the relatively lower cost of surplus energy availability in the area due to factors such as rain season, which results in only 20% of NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | (2021)12:1938 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22256-3 | www.nature.com/naturecommunications 3PDF Image | carbon emission flows and sustainability of Bitcoin blockchain
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