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ARTICLE NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22256-3 Fig. 2 Estimated annualized scenario simulation results. Estimated annualized energy consumption (a) and carbon emission flows (b) of Bitcoin operation in China are generated through monthly simulation results of BBCE modeling from 2021 to 2029. The blue, red, yellow, and green bars in a and b indicate the annual energy consumption and carbon emission flows of Chinese Bitcoin industry in benchmark, site regulation, market access, and carbon tax scenario, respectively. Each data is presented as mean values ± SEM based on 95% confidence intervals calculated by two-tailed t-tests (p < 0:05). n = 204 emission observations. miners remaining in the coal-based area in the scenario. In the carbon tax (CT) scenario, carbon tax is increased to two-times the initial value to enforce more strict punishment for high carbon emission behaviors of Bitcoin blockchain. Utilizing the above scenarios, carbon emission flows and energy consumptions of Bitcoin blockchain are assessed, the carbon and energy reduction effectiveness of different policies are evaluated in BBCE simulations from the period of 2014–2030. Carbon emission flows of Bitcoin blockchain operation. Without any policy interventions, the carbon emission pattern of the Bitcoin blockchain will become a non-negligible barrier against the sustainability efforts of China. The peak annual energy consumption and carbon emission of the Bitcoin blockchain in China are expected to exceed those of some developed countries such as Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Czech Republic. Fig- ure 2 reports the estimated annualized energy consumption and carbon emission flows of Bitcoin blockchain in China. As the baseline assessment under minimal policy intervention, the Benchmark scenario simulates the natural operation results of the Bitcoin blockchain. In the BM scenario, the annual energy con- sumption of Bitcoin blockchain in China will gradually grow and eventually peak in 2024, at 296.59 Twh per year. This suggests that Bitcoin industry operation would follow an energy intensive pattern. In fact, energy consumed by Chinese Bitcoin blockchain in 2024 will exceed the energy consumption level of Italy and Saudi Arabia in 2016, ranking it 12th among all the countries. Regarding the carbon tax scenario, the highest energy demand of the Bitcoin industry slightly decreases due to carbon emission 4 NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | (2021)12:1938 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22256-3 | www.nature.com/naturecommunicationsPDF Image | carbon emission flows and sustainability of Bitcoin blockchain
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