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THE ILLICIT CRYPTOCURRENCY MINING THREAT Figure 13. Fortinet data shows the positive correlation between the percentage of binary-based cryptocurrency mining malware and the price of Bitcoin since January 2018. A similar analysis comparing mining malware to the price of Monero shows a similar positive correlation (not shown here). 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 20K 15K 10K 5K 0 Cryptojacking as of % of Malware Volume Bitcoin Price (USD) WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IF THE VALUE OR USE OF CRYPTOCURRENCIES INCREASES? CTA assesses that the number of actors that seek to leverage illicit cryptocurrency mining for revenue generation and the number of incidents of illicit mining would also increase. Cryptocurrency mining payloads can be easily integrated into other malware types or cyber campaigns to generate revenue for the actors. Increasing values may also mean that actors may become more willing to invest in slightly more sophisticated attack vectors or methods that obfuscate the mining as the revenue on a per- infection basis increases. We have already begun to see signs of increasingly sophisticated illicit mining operations and an expansion of targeted devices, even with the downward trend in currency value seen above. For example, we have seen miners try to avoid detection by operating during off hours and obfuscating the mining network traffic. Actors are also now targeting infrastructure with lower processing power, such as IoT devices (smart TVs, cable boxes, DVRs) and network devices. CTA expects this expansion of sophistication and targeted devices to continue to other IoT devices, mobile devices, and servers as currency values increase. WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IF THE VALUE OR USE OF CRYPTOCURRENCIES DECREASES? If mining revenue decreases, illicit cryptocurrency miners could leverage their experience to move on to other types of attacks. As noted previously, some actors moved away from ransomware attacks to illicit cryptocurrency mining as it became more profitable because it is often easier to conduct mining operations and miners currently have a lower risk of getting caught or being prosecuted. Decreasing values could reverse this trend. Additionally, actors may move beyond ransomware and leverage their access into enterprises and individual endpoints for data theft, manipulation, or destructive attacks. This would require increases in sophistication and malicious intent, but if actors have access, they may become more willing to leverage it. COULD ILLICIT MINING TECHNIQUES BE USED FOR ATTACKS ON NON-CURRENCY BLOCKCHAINS? Malicious actors may also begin to turn their attention to attacking other non-currency-related blockchain technologies that are in development. Corporations and organizations are beginning to leverage blockchain 22 Bitcoin Price (USD) Cryptojacking as of % of Malware VolumePDF Image | ILLICIT CRYPTOCURRENCY MINING THREAT
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