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already in operation. Specialized start-up companies work on 15 to 20-seaters for the next decade and 50 to 100- seater regional aircraft, announced for entry into service around 2035. Even though this time scale seems optimistic, it shows the stepwise scalability of electric aircraft technology, which helps reduce its development risk. While today about 65% of electricity generation comes from fossil sources and produces significant amounts of CO2, it is likely that the share of renewable electricity will increase noticeably in the next decades, thanks to governments’ and industries’ current focus on climate action throughout all sectors. Operational aspects Most radically new aircraft configurations yield additional benefits beyond fuel efficiency, such as lower maintenance costs for electric motors compared to combustion engines, or better aircraft utilization over a day thanks to shorter airport turnaround time for small blended wing bodies. However, new challenges arise for the implementation and operation of these aircraft. Such challenges could be the required adaptation of the airport infrastructure for large blended wing bodies, the need for high-power electricity supply for recharging electric aircraft, and issues with higher noise levels and lower flight speeds for open rotors. Economic aspects The additional operational benefits and potential challenges have to be considered together with fuel savings when establishing a business case for radically new aircraft. If the direct operating costs (DOC) for a new aircraft type are significantly lower than for comparable models, a higher purchase price can be justified. However, a very high aircraft price, even if linked to high DOC savings, may present a prohibitive risk for airlines as customers. Manufacturers need to consider these aspects when setting their prices and determining the number of aircraft to be sold to reach the break-even point. The development of a radically new aircraft type represents a very high investment for aircraft manufacturers, which may be considered too risky as long as incremental developments building upon existing aircraft concepts could offer a similar degree of improvement. On the other hand, radically new aircraft are a good opportunity for newcomers in the aerospace market with specialized skills. Estimated carbon reductions The impact of new technologies on future CO2 emissions of the global aviation fleet is modelled for different scenarios describing various degrees of air traffic growth and technology implementation. Three air traffic growth scenarios, which were developed in the IATA 20-year passenger forecast, were combined with five technology implementation scenarios. Compared to the reference case with no new aircraft models introduced after the imminent ones, the most optimistic scenario with the introduction of electric aircraft over 150 seats before 2050 achieves a reduction of typically 25% of CO2 emissions. After a peak in the current years with annual fuel efficiency improvements well above 1.5% until shortly after 2020, a slowdown of improvement below 1.0% p.a. in the late 2020s is observed (which does not consider entry into service of a fully new 210–300-seater in the mid-2020s, as its development has not yet been announced officially). After 2035, the improvement rate strongly depends on the scenario chosen and reaches values in the order of 3% p.a. for the most optimistic electrification scenario. Disruptive technologies Finally, a short outlook is given on two disruptive transport types that might partially replace subsonic commercial flight in the near future: For short-haul traffic, Hyperloop is a ground-based passenger and cargo transport system currently in the test phase, reaching similar travel speeds as commercial aircraft. For long-haul connections, new supersonic aircraft, which are currently under development, are expected to see a revival in the 2020s, first for business and later for commercial travel. However, the environmental challenges related to supersonic aircraft are higher than for subsonic aircraft. Recommendations Recommendations for a seamless implementation of radically new aircraft are given. In particular, close cooperation between all aviation stakeholders, including newcomers specialized in single categories of novel aircraft, is required with sufficient lead time to prepare adaptations of airport and airspace infrastructure and to develop necessary standards and regulations. Airlines should proactively show their interest in new fuel-efficient aircraft contributing to the Industry’s climate action goals, to give manufacturers more certainty about the expected demand, which is needed to launch a new aircraft program. 8PDF Image | Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050
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